Candles & Ticks | Daily Digest 09/14/2022
Stocks bounce back slightly led by Energy and Consumer Discretionary
Market Overview
Producer prices seem to be cooling as PPI fell 0.1% M/M, a rise of 8.72% Y/Y. This was the smallest rise since August of 2021. Markets had a small gain with all indices finishing positive for the day. 6/11 sectors were up while interest rates fell. Tonight, Ethereum’s merge finally takes place.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: After rallying above the high of the previous 3-months, August lost 4% M/M. It closed below the midpoint from the prior 3-month range. ES has been balancing from May to August. Unless the month of September can eclipse the 4327.5 August high, ES will be OTFD.
W/W: ES has broken the streak of three straight negative weeks and OTFD. ES is in balance heading into next week’s quadruple witching and CPI print.
D/D: ES took out yesterday’s low but couldn’t fall anymore with lack of supply. ES gained 15-points on the day and remains in the upper part of the balance zone.
Performance & Metrics
Performance
Metrics
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4054
ETH VPOC: 3964
ETH VAL: 3936.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 3975
RTH VPOC: 3964
RTH VAL: 3951
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES RTH Market Profile (today)
RTH TPOC: 3965.25
RTH Poor Low/High: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3929 to 3931.25; 3976.25 to 3981.25
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market Profile:
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The ONO was below the prior day’s value area but above the LOD. Inventory during Globex was balanced and in between the prior day’s VAL and LOD. About 20% of the inventory during Globex was below the prior day’s close. The bottom two areas of single prints from the previous day were filled during Globex. Trapped longs above the auction acted as supply.
ONO: 3956.75
ONH: 3979.50
ONL: 3942.50
Range: 37
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was in between the prior day’s VAL and LOD. It was also underneath the T+2 low. For the first few TPO periods after the open, ES rotated back and forth in a 40-point range, erasing the ONL and prior day’s LOD. A short position held the auction above 3936.5 as buyers raised the offer almost 50-points to erase the ONH. ES snuck into the prior day’s value area by 1-point but met supply with lack of follow-through. ES traded in a 15-point balance zone for about 4-TPO periods before demand fizzled and supply pushed ES lower. Shorts took out the prior session low but supply faded at 3929. Shorts covered and caused ES to rally 40-points to close RTH in slightly positive territory.
O: 3963.75
H: 3981.25
L: 3929
Range: 52.25