Candles & Ticks | Daily Digest 09/09/2022
S&P caps off the week with another rally to break the 3-week losing streak
Market Overview
Stocks rally for the 3rd straight day and end the 3-week losing streak. All 4 indices and 11 sectors were positive. Treasury yields gained while Bitcoin and Ether had big days. Crypto’s total market cap is back over $1T.
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: After rallying above the high of the previous 3-months, August lost 4% M/M. It closed below the midpoint from the prior 3-month range. ES has been balancing from May to August. Unless the month of September can eclipse the 4327.5 August high, ES will be OTFD.
W/W: ES has broken the streak of three straight negative weeks and OTFD. ES is in balance heading into next week’s quadruple witching and CPI print.
D/D: Three straight green days for ES to end the week. It’s been OTFU and has broken out of the balance zone.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4327.50, 4315, 4295.50, 4288, 4221.50, 4217.25, 4077.25,
4072.75,4019.25,4011.5Lows: 4005.75, 3942.75, 3883.5, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Metrics
Performance
Metrics
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4002
ETH VPOC: 3980
ETH VAL: 3907.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES RTH Volume Profile (Friday)
RTH VAH: 4071.25
RTH VPOC: 4066.75
RTH VAL: 4049.25
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES RTH Market Profile (Friday)
RTH TPOC: 4056
RTH Poor Low/High: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 4026.25 to 4043
Here’s a TPO chart of Friday’s session with ETH/RTH split Market Profile:
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The ONO was inside the prior day’s price range by 1-point. Inventory during Globex was mostly long and traded above the prior day’s RTH HOD 90% of the time. The recent 2-day rally has trapped some short positions that never closed. The ON session has a poor low at 4005.75.
ONO: 4010.25
ONH: 4045
ONL: 4005.75
Range: 39.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped up (4011.5 to 4029.25) and was above the prior day’s RTH HOD and T+2 high. Shortly after NY trading opened, it became evident that supply was minimal. Only 3-points, out of the 17.75-point gap, were filled when shorts tried to move the market lower. Buyers lifted the offer and ES overtook the ONH. ES was OTFU for the first few TPO periods. It stalled at 4064.25, backfilling and trading sideways for several periods. ES missed entering the ON range by 1-tick before supply evaporated and the auction rotated up. On Aug. 30th, there was a ledge / double top at 4072.75. That was eclipsed Friday as ES got up to 4077.25 before pulling back and closing RTH at 4066.25.
O: 4029.25
H: 4077.25
L: 4026.25
Range: 51