ES[U22] Debrief 08/17/2022
Market Overview
All 4 indices fell along with 10/11 sectors. Energy was the only sector up on the day. Bitcoin and Ether lost ground as well. July’s FOMC minutes were released and it showed that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates until they see progress toward their 2% inflation target.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: +3.47%
ES couldn’t take out June’s high of 4189 so it’s OTFD for 5 straight months. However, ES finished up 9% MoM. July was an inside month failing to erase the high and low from June.
Prior month’s close: 4133.50
Weekly Change: -0.10%
ES is OTFU for five straight weeks with four consecutive weeks in the green.
Prior week’s close: 4281
Daily Change: -0.72%
ES fell 0.72% today and erased the previous day’s low to end OTFU.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4327.50, 4315
Lows:
4278.75, 4255, 4249, 4208.25, 4202.75, 4113.75, 4113, 4103.75, 4084.5, 4080.5, 3994.50, 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4291.50
ETH VPOC: 4276
ETH VAL: 4214
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4282
RTH VPOC: 4277
RTH VAL: 4264
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 4277.25 and there was excess above 4302.50 and below 4258.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was long. The ONO was inside the previous day’s value area. Inventory during Globex was mostly short. Sellers took out the lows from the previous day’s RTH and Globex sessions. Longs were trapped above 4322 from yesterday’s rejection at the highs of the day.
ONO: 4309.25
ONH: 4315
ONL: 4266
ONRange: 49
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped down and opened below the previous day’s low. It was also inside the T+2 high and low. Shortly after the opening bell, longs lifted ES and closed the ON gap. The auction failed to get into the previous day’s value area before demand faded. ES fell 30-points to get below the previous day and the T+2 low. Supply ran out at 4255 and shorts covered to bring ES back to the previous day’s low. After the July FOMC meeting minutes were released, ES rose 30 points but failed to reach the previous day’s VPOC. Supply at 4305.25 sank ES another 30 to 35-points before shorts covered to stabilize the auction.
O: 4269
H: 4305.25
L: 4255
Range: 50.25