ES[U22] Debrief 08/09/2022
Market Overview
Trading was slow today as everyone awaits tomorrow’s CPI print. 4/4 major indices fell along with Bitcoin and Ether. US treasuries rose while the yield curve inversion between the 2Y-10Y continues to get deeper.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -0.22%
ES couldn’t take out June’s high of 4189 so it’s OTFD for 5 straight months. However, ES finished up 9% MoM. July was an inside month failing to erase the high and low from June.
Prior month’s close: 4133.50
Weekly Change: -0.54%
ES is OTFU for 4 straight weeks with 3 consecutive weeks in the green.
Prior week’s close: 4146.75
Daily Change: -0.42%
ES has been consolidating and trading in a balance zone for 8 consecutive sessions. It is due for a breakout or a breakdown soon from the current range of 4080.5 through 4188.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4188
Lows: 4113, 4103.75, 4084.5, 4080.5, 3994.50, 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4155.50
ETH VPOC: 4125
ETH VAL: 4117
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4129
RTH VPOC: 4121.50
RTH VAL: 4118
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 4125. There’s excess above 4134.75 with long traders trapped above 4133.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was short. The ONO was inside the previous day’s value area. Inventory during Globex was balanced then short leading into RTH. Long traders were trapped above 4155.
ONO: 4148.50
ONH: 4155
ONL: 4123.50
ONRange: 31.50
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside the previous day’s value area and T+2 low. Buyers tried to lift ES but sellers front ran the auction as it approached the prior day’s VPOC. ES fell as supply moved it below the previous day’s low and T+2 low. It spent the rest of RTH trading sideways in a 25-point range mostly below the previous day’s low.
O: 4133.50
H: 4138.75
L: 4113
Range: 25.75