ES[U22] Debrief 08/08/2022
Market Overview
Equities were muted for the day. The Nasdaq and S&P fell while the Dow and Russell were up again. Bitcoin and Ether fell, while long duration Treasury yields fell too. On the economic front, supply chains showed some signs of easing.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: +0.20%
ES couldn’t take out June’s high of 4189 so it’s OTFD for 5 straight months. However, ES finished up 9% MoM. July was an inside month failing to erase the high and low from June.
Prior month’s close: 4133.50
Weekly Change: -0.12%
ES is OTFU for 4 straight weeks with 3 consecutive weeks in the green.
Prior week’s close: 4146.75
Daily Change: -0.12%
ES spent each session this week between 4080.5 and 4173.25. It was a range bound week of consolidation following last week’s upside move. 4202.25 remains a key level as long as ES is in this area.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4173.25, 4166.25
Lows:
4136, 4103.75, 4084.5, 4080.5, 3994.50, 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4165
ETH VPOC: 4155
ETH VAL: 4115
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4173.50
RTH VPOC: 4141.50
RTH VAL: 4130
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 4141.25.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was short. The ONO was above the previous day’s VAH but inside the HOD. Inventory got short initially once Japan opened. Leading up to the London open, supply ran out and inventory got long. Eventually the previous day’s HOD was erased and a double top at 4177.50 was made. There was supply above 4180.
ONO: 4149.75
ONH: 4177.50
ONL: 4130.75
ONRange:
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped up and opened above the previous day’s high and T+2 high. At the opening bell, shorts tried to push ES down but it couldn’t close the ON gap. As a results, buyers lifted the offer and drove ES past the ONH. At 4188, sellers were met as a double top was put in. From then on, supply moved ES back into the ON range and also into the previous day’s value area. Supply ran out several points before the previous day’s VAL as shorts covered. ES stabilized and bounced 20 points off the RTH low.
O: 4164.25
H: 4188
L: 4129.25
Range: 58.75