ES[U22] Debrief 08/03/2022
Market Overview
Equities rallied to erase all their losses for the week. 4/4 indices were green as were 10/11 S&P sectors. Energy fell as did the yield on many US treasuries. Bitcoin and Ether caught a bid as well.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: +0.55%
ES couldn’t take out June’s high of 4189 so it’s OTFD for 5 straight months. However, ES finished up 9% MoM. July was an inside month failing to erase the high and low from June.
Prior month’s close: 4133.50
Weekly Change: +0.55%
ES is OTFU for 3 straight weeks with 2 consecutive weeks in the green.
Prior week’s close: 4133.50
Daily Change: -1.53%
ES ended OTFD and is now OTFU for two straight sessions. Price action broke out above the 4080.5 to 4147.25 zone.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4170,
4168.25,4160,4147.25,4143Lows: 4084.5, 4080.5, 3994.50, 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4147
ETH VPOC: 4120
ETH VAL: 4086
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4170
RTH VPOC: 4158
RTH VAL: 4132.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 4156.25. In the ON session there was a large distribution from 4094.75 to 4102.5 which covered the previous day’s VPOC. In RTH, large traders took that inventory and distributed it from 4154.75 to 4163.75.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was short. The RTH open was inside of the previous day’s value area. Inventory in Globex was mostly long. Shorts are still trapped below.
ONO: 4097
ONH: 4122.50
ONL: 4084.50
ONRange: 38
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was above the previous day’s value area and inside the price range. It was also inside the T+2 high and low. Not long after the opening bell, the ONH and previous day’s VAH were erased. Size traders had to shake out some sellers who pressured ES back into the ON range and prior day VA. They ran out of supply and buyers lifted ES up for the remainder of RTH. The prior day’s HOD was passed eventually and ES finally encountered strong sellers at 4170. ES fell 20-points off the high and closed RTH at 4152.50.
O: 4115.75
H: 4170
L: 4112.50
Range: 57.50