ES[U22] Debrief 08/02/2022
Market Overview
Equities fell for the 2nd straight day to begin the month. 4/4 indices and 11/11 sectors were all negative. On the economic front, job openings had their fastest decline since the pandemic. Bitcoin and Ether fell, as well. Treasury yields caught a bid.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -0.96%
ES couldn’t take out June’s high of 4189 so it’s OTFD for 5 straight months. However, ES finished up 9% MoM. July was an inside month failing to erase the high and low from June.
Prior month’s close: 4133.50
Weekly Change: -0.96%
ES is OTFU for 3 straight weeks with 2 consecutive weeks in the green.
Prior week’s close: 4133.50
Daily Change: -0.65%
ES is OTFD for two consecutive days. Price action for the past three sessions has been constrained between 4080.5 and 4147.25.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4168.25, 4160, 4147.25, 4143
Lows:
4097,4081, 4080.5, 3994.50, 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 4147
ETH VPOC: 4107
ETH VAL: 4049
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4116.75
RTH VPOC: 4094.25
RTH VAL: 4092.25
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 4110 and there was excess below 4088.75.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was short. The ONO was inside the previous day’s value area. Inventory in Globex was entirely short as the previous day’s low was erased for a moment. Shorts are still trapped beneath 4100.
ONO: 4119.75
ONH: 4122.25
ONL: 4083
ONRange: 38.75
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was below the previous day’s value area but above the low. It was also above the T+2 low. ES ping ponged back and forth in a 20 point range after the opening bell, briefly trading below the ONL before supply ran out. Shorts covered and ES stabilized with a bounce of 60-points, missing the previous day’s high by a few points. Demand diminished and supply pressured the auction lower. There were moments of short covering and responsive buying but they were short lived. Supply continued to push ES underneath VWAP and eventually the previous day’s low. It was a wide, rangebound day as positions above and below kept price action rotational.
O: 4103.75
H: 4143
L: 4080.50
Range: 62.50