ES[U22] Debrief 07/27/2022
Market Overview
Equities rose again as the Fed announced another 0.75 percent hike to the Fed Funds rate. 4/4 indices were green. All 11 sectors were up led by communications and technology. Bitcoin and Ether continue to rise as well.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: +6.20%
ES has been OTFD for four consecutive months. If longs can’t erase the June high of 4189, then this trend will continue for a fifth straight month.
Prior month’s close: 3789.50
Weekly Change: +1.50%
ES is OTFU for the past two weeks. 3820.25 will need to get erased to end OTFU.
Prior week’s close: 3965
Daily Change: +2.58%
Today’s big rally in ES flipped the week to green. ES went above 4030 for the first time since 6/10/22. If ES can stay above 3938.75, ES will be OTFU for three straight sessions.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4168.25, 4160, 4144.25,
4030.5,4016.25,3988.75Lows: 3938.75, 3913.25, 3834, 3820.25, 3780.25, 3723.75, 3693.25, 3661.5, 3639, 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 3994
ETH VPOC: 3957
ETH VAL: 3940.50
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 4016.50
RTH VPOC: 3975
RTH VAL: 3954.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 3975.25. There were single prints between 3989.25 and 4008.25 where shorts got trapped. There’s also excess below 3963.25.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the previous day’s close, wholesale’s position was short. The ONO was right at the previous day’s VAH. Inventory during Globex was entirely long. Shorts trapped beneath 3940 held the auction up.
ONO: 3939.25
ONH: 3968.50
ONL: 3938.75
ONRange: 28.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped up and opened a few points above the previous day’s high. It was also inside the T+2 high and low. After the opening bell, ES backfilled and filled the ON gap. There wasn’t enough supply to follow through lower. At 3954.50, supply ran out and buyers elevated ES past the ONH. On a 30-min chart, ES continued to OTFU the rest of the morning and got above the T+2 high. At 3984.50, demand began to slow in the face of supply. ES traded in a range until the Fed funds rate hike announcement. ES initially ripped back and forth in a 20-25 point range before settling. Once it settled, buyers lifted ES through the previous HOD and into 4000 territory. Shorts were trapped on the move up as ES continued until 4042.75 when buying diminished. Supply was met and longs exited their positions causing ES to drop and backfill. ES fell nearly 30-points off the high but closed RTH at 4020.50.
O: 3957.5
H: 4042.75
L: 3954.50
Range: 88.25