ESU22 Debrief 06/22/2022
Market Overview
Fed Chair Powell spoke to Senators this morning. After gapping down, the S&P rallied in the morning and fell in the afternoon to close below the previous day’s close. Only four sectors were green for the day (real estate, health care, utilities and communications). Interest rates, crude oil, natural gas and crypto all fell as well.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -8.92%
ES is OTFD the past 3 months. The auction needs to erase the 4303 May high to end the streak.
Prior month’s close: 4131.25
Weekly Change: +2.37%
ES has now been OTFD for three consecutive weeks. There was also a gap left unfilled on a weekly time frame from 3878.5 to 3896.5.
Prior week’s close: 3675.75
Daily Change: -0.13%
ES gapped down and rallied early to fill the gap. It also passed the previous day’s high but fell later in the day to close slightly down. ES is OTFU for three straight sessions.
Unbroken Levels (M, W, D)
Highs: 4631, 4588.75, 4519.75, 4509, 4393.25, 4303.5, 4303, 4202.25, 4189, 4183 3843, 3833.25
Lows: 3596, 3592.25, 3575.25, 3545.5, 3518, 3506.5
Performance & Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
ETH VAH: 3756.75
ETH VPOC: 3675.25
ETH VAL: 3644.75
ES RTH Volume Profile (today)
RTH VAH: 3805.50
RTH VPOC: 3785
RTH VAL: 3719.25
Prior Day RTH High and Low
T+2 High (for next RTH session): 3783.75
T+2 Low (for next RTH session): 3735.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
The TPOC was 3782.25. There was excess above 3798 and below 3745.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
At the prior day’s close, wholesale’s position was long. The ONO was just inside the previous day’s value area. Inventory during the Globex session was basically 100% short. New longs were trapped during the previous day’s distribution at VPOC.
ONO: 3766.25
ONH: 3767.75
ONL: 3693.25
ONRange: 74.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped down and opened below the previous day’s low. It was also above Friday’s T+2 high. Much like the previous day, there was no supply. Buyers easily took ES and filled the overnight gap. They erased the ONH in route to the previous day’s value area and ripped through it. Eventually, the previous day’s high was erased. This all occurred in the opening hour. ES continued rising until supply was met at 3797.75. Similar to yesterday, shorts pushed ES lower this time by about 40 points. ES bounced and took out the previous high and created a new one at 3805.50. Supply then pushed ES back down and it closed about 10 points lower than the previous day.
O: 3724
H: 3805.50
L: 3719.25
Range: 86.25