ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/28/2022
Market Overview
Equities were positive today following Meta’s positive earnings call yesterday. All indices finished up for the day. Of the big 5 mega caps, Tesla was the only one to lose ground for the third day in a row now.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -5.46%
April is an inside candle with all price action inside of March’s price range. The March and Feb lows are an arm’s length away.
Nearby Highs: 4631, 4588.75 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4136.75 (current), 4129.5, 4101.75
Weekly Change: +0.83%
There have been lower lows for each week in April and this week has put in an even lower low. ES is also OTFD the past two weeks. However, today’s gain in ES has flipped this week from red to green.
Nearby Highs: 4588.75, 4509, 4303.5 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4136.75 (current), 4129.5, 4101.75
Daily Change: +2.47%
ES gained for the 2nd day in a row and finished above last week’s close. ES is kind of trading sideways this week in a wide range. 4303.5 has been acting as resistance and the auction has been unable to erase 4136.75 as the LOW.
Nearby Highs: 4393.25, 4303.5 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4182.5 (current), 4149, 4136.75, 4129.5, 4094.5
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile for the past five sessions:
ETH VAH: 4275.5
ETH VPOC: 4215
ETH VAL: 4174.5
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4303.5
RTH VPOC: 4275
RTH VAL: 4214
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4236.25
T+2 Low: 4157
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale’s position was long. The ONO was inside of yesterday’s value area and price range. Inventory overnight was long, briefly touching above the PDHOD. ES began correcting with 4 hours to go before RTH. Heading into RTH, short traders had pushed ES below VWAP.
ONO: 4213
ONH: 4258.25
ONL: 4200.5
ONRange: 57.75
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
Where was the RTH open compared to the prior day’s range and value area? The RTH open was a few ticks above yesterday’s VAH, but inside the price range. It was also below the T+2 high. At the opening bell, ES had a quick 9 point rally before short traders took control of the auction. They moved ES below yesterday’s VPOC, but could not get to the VAL before short covering came in.
IBO: 4229.75
IBH: 4238
IBL: 4191
IBRange: 47
Remaining Session:
Immediately after the IB period, short traders lowered ES and briefly peeked below yesterday’s value area. That’s when long traders stepped up and lifted the auction as supply dried up. ES traded range bound for about an hour between 4220 and 4200. Around noon, buyers slammed the offer and raised ES for the next 3 hours. This move covered roughly 90 points as ES ripped through yesterday’s value area and HOD. ES was unable to surpass the weekly high from this week and turned around at that same exact level to the tick. Supply was met here which drove the auction down 50 points into the Globex range but above yesterday’s RTH range. From here until the end of RTH, ES whip sawed back and forth inside a 35 point range and closed 100 points higher than the previous day.
