ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/26/2022
Market Overview
Equities got dropped on their head today. Tesla crumbled 12% a day after the announcement that Twitter has accepted Elon’s buyout with his Tesla shares to be used as collateral. Bonds and crude futures were green.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -7.95%
April is an inside candle with all price action inside of March’s price range. The March and Feb lows are an arm’s length away.
Nearby Highs: 4631, 4588.75 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4136.75 (current), 4129.5, 4101.75
Weekly Change: -2.27%
Huge losses today erased yesterday’s gains and have put the week in negative territory. There have been lower lows for each week in April and this week has put in an even lower low.
Nearby Highs: 4588.75, 4509, 4303.5 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4136.75 (current), 4129.5, 4101.75
Daily Change: -2.85%
ES had a big sell off today which caused yesterday’s gains to evaporate. Today was the 5th straight session where ES had put it in a lower low.
Nearby Highs: 4393.25, 4303.5 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4136.75 (current), 4129.5, 4094.5
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile for the past five sessions:
ETH VAH: 4410.5
ETH VPOC: 4215
ETH VAL: 4170
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4232.5
RTH VPOC: 4212.5
RTH VAL: 4179
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4380.50
T+2 Low: 4247.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
Today’s profile left single prints above 4253.5, 4233.5 through 4240.5, 4176.5. through 4182.25, 4150.75 through 4166.5 and below 4144.25.
Finally, here’s a 4-hour ES chart for 2022. ES is making it’s way into this territory for the 4th time. It will be interesting to see how much demand is still in this region if ES creeps a little lower.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale’s position was extremely long. The ONO was inside of yesterday’s price range, but above the VAH. Inventory in Globex was long initially as ES rose above the prior day’s price range. However, during the London open, inventory corrected and became short as the auction fell beneath VWAP. It traded inside yesterday’s price range but above the VAH for several hours.
ONO: 4294
ONH: 4303.5
ONL: 4262.25
ONRange: 41.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of yesterday’s price range, above the VAH and T+2 low. After the opening bell, supply pressed the auction lower. The responsive buyers were weak and easily absorbed by the short traders. ES slowly entered yesterday’s value area and any attempts by long traders to defend acceptance here failed. ES gradually moved below the T+2 low. Once the responsive buyers in this area were absorbed, supply shoved ES even lower and continued establishing new LOD’s. Short traders tried to challenge the PDVPOC, but the buyers were able to defend this level. ES chopped in about a 12 point range above the PDVPOC for the final 10 minutes of the IB period.
IBO: 4265.75
IBH: 4267.5
IBL: 4221.25
IBRange: 46.25
Remaining Session:
Immediately after the US open, ES continued to trend downward. For about 90 minutes, all price action was in a channel that created lower highs and lows. Right around noon, supply ran out at 4201. For the next 60 minutes, long traders lifted the offer nearly 30 points. They had to absorb shorts along the way in creating a double top pattern before losing strength to the sellers. Within a span of 30 minutes, supply came in a dropped ES to erase the previous LOD. The auction got underneath 4200 and erased the PDLOD by 1.25 points. ES chopped back and forth in a near 25 point range for about 90 minutes. In the final hour of US trading, ES erased the 4194 LOD, and the floor collapsed. Supply dropped the auction nearly 60 points to new session lows and within an earshot of the Feb low.
Here’s today’s 2 min RTH chart.
