ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/22/2022
Market Overview
There’s fear out there with respect to risk assets right now.
Equities got hammered again today. All the indices got crushed to cap off big losses on the week. The big 4 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google) all report Q1 earnings next week so it will be interesting to see the market reaction.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Change: -5.82%
April is an inside candle with all price action inside of March’s price range.
Nearby Highs: 4631, 4588.75 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4247.5 (current), 4129.5, 4094.5
Weekly Change: -2.74%
This is the third straight negative week. There have been lower lows for each week in April.
Nearby Highs: 4588.75, 4509 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4247.5 (current), 4129.5
Daily Change: -2.81%
ES completely descended below the recent balance zone on the daily chart. Prices last seen in the middle of March were revisited. During the plummet, ES erased daily lows from 4/19, 4/18 and 3/17.
Nearby Highs: 4509, 4393.25 (current)
Nearby Lows: 4247.5 (current), 4239, 4129.5
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Composite Volume Profile for the past five sessions:
ETH VAH: 4453.5
ETH VPOC: 4390
ETH VAL: 4262
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4336.75
RTH VPOC: 4269.25
RTH VAL: 4262.25
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4509
T+2 Low: 4380
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with composite ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with daily ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
There’s plenty of single prints above 4368. In addition, there’s single from 4270.72 - 4274.25, 4256.5 - 4261.75 and below 4249.75.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale’s position was extremely short. The ONO was inside of the previous day’s price range and value area. Inventory in Globex was fairly balanced. ES was a seesaw in a 32 point range. It fell below the prior day’s LOD and VWAP and then rose above VWAP and the previous day’s price range. This slow rotation repeated twice during Globex. Heading into RTH, inventory was short. The market profile for Globex showed single prints below 4365.75.
ONO: 4385.75
ONH: 4393.25
ONL: 4362
ONRange: 31.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was well below the T+2 low. It was below the previous day’s VAL and LOD, creating about a 3 point gap. The gap was filled in the first 5 minutes after the bell. Then sellers hit the bids and moved ES lower and erased the ONL within the first 30 minutes. The auction got down to about 4346 and violently chopped back and forth in a 20 point range for about 30 minutes. In the final 15 minutes of the IB period, more supply came in and broke this range down further and created a new IBL. Any and all short covering was quickly absorbed by supply to close out a very choppy opening hour.
IBO: 4377.25
IBH: 4380.5
IBL: 4335.75
IBRange: 44.75
Remaining Session:
Following the IB period, ES continued to plummet. Inventory was able to absorb any and all responsive buyers. Lower lows and lower highs were made for the 4 hours following the US open. In the last hour of US trading, responsive longs hit the offer to elevate ES 30 points. The buyers weakened again and supply moved ES back down and established a new LOD right before the end of RTH.
