ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/19/2022
Market Overview
Speculation of a potential 75bps interest rate hike couldn’t hasten equities today. All the major indices finished positive.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: -1.94%
April is an inside candle with all price action inside of March’s price range. The March high of 4631 and low of 4129.5 are both untested.
Weekly Time Frame: +1.27%
ES is currently OTFD for the fourth week in a row. Last week’s high of 4491.25 and the prior week’s high of 4588.75 remain untested. To the downside, the low from the week of 3/14 @ 4129.5 also stands.
Daily Time Frame: +1.65%
The past 5 trading sessions have all been trading inside a zone with a high of 4467 (new high set today) and low of 4355.5. It remains to be seen if ES can finally break out of this 112 point range. A break to the upside would target prior daily highs of 4491.25 and 4519.75. To the downside is a daily low of 4320.25 from 3/17.
A composite volume profile of this 5-day period shows two high volume areas with the VPOC @ 4442.25.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Overnight Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4399.5
ETH VPOC: 4385
ETH VAL: 4377
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4460
RTH VPOC: 4443
RTH VAL: 4428.5
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4406.25
T+2 Low: 4364.5
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
There were poor highs in Globex and there’s plenty of excess below 4432.75 from the US open. There are also single prints above 4462.75.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was positioned long. The ONO was inside of yesterday’s value area and price range. The inventory in Globex was balanced for the first few hours but got short a couple of hours following the London open. ES sank below VWAP and briefly got below the prior day’s value area. After ES hit a new IBL below yesterday’s VAL, inventory tried to correct and get above VWAP but was rejected.
ONO: 4399
ONH: 4411
ONL: 4371.75
ONRange: 39.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of the previous day’s value area and price range. It was also slightly above the T+2 low. There were virtually no sellers at the open as ES ripped with strong demand. Long traders slammed the offers and attracted strong demand along the way as they took their inventory higher. They surpassed the ONH, as well as yesterday and the previous day’s VAH. The periods of backfill did not last more than 4 minutes which indicated a lack of supply. Overall, the IB period was a strong 50 point rally for long traders that began to slow down towards the end of the US open.
IBO: 4386.75
IBH: 4437.5
IBL: 4385
IBRange: 52.5
Remaining Session:
After the IB period, the rally in ES began to slow. As long traders lost steam in the face of supply, chop ensued. Each brief rally was met with a seller who negated the move. The auction was able to squeeze out nearly 15 additional points from the end of the IB period and established a new HOD. After this, the auction continued to trade inside a range for several hours coming down 20 points off the 4451.75 temporary high at one point. With less than an hour to go before the close, long traders blitzed the offers and elevated ES nearly 20 points within 10 minutes to new session highs. This is when supply was encountered and things got choppy as the auction steadily rose, creating new highs in the process. Inventory almost sank ES back into the balance zone that was treated post-IB, but bidders held up and carried ES to one final HOD. Inventory eventually won and knocked ES back down into the RTH’s balance zone / HVN / VPOC but couldn’t quite drive the auction down below VWAP.
Below is a closer look at the RTH session from today.
Links
Professor Galloway discusses the importance of maintaining competition in business, mainly big tech.
Netflix's slide post-earnings takes down other streaming companies.