ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/18/2022
Market Overview
The Nasdaq was the only index to end today in positive territory. 4 of the top 5 mega caps were green. ES had a roller coaster of a day. Bond futures fell, while crude rose. Bitcoin and Ethereum were both positive, as well.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: MoM (month-over-month) ES is still OTFD (One Time Framing Down) as well as OTFU (One Time Framing Up) since February. The levels still remain. The February low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5.
Weekly Time Frame: ES is still OTFD on the weekly chart. 4491.25 was the prior week’s high, while 4588.75 was the high from two weeks ago. The next weekly swing low of 4129.5 is well below ES at the moment.
Daily Time Frame: Since hitting a high of 4631 on 3/29, ES continues to trend down. The final three days last week were all inside of Tuesday’s price range. Today’s session broke the low of that 3-day price range, as well as two swing lows. 4455.75 is a swing high on the daily chart. 4320.25 is a swing low on the daily chart.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Overnight Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4375
ETH VPOC: 4363
ETH VAL: 4357.50
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4403.50
RTH VPOC: 4400
RTH VAL: 4380.50
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4455.75
T+2 Low: 4385
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
Today’s RTH profile had a poor high. The price range from today’s session was smaller than the past few sessions.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was short. The ONO was inside of the prior session’s price range and below the RTH VAL. Inventory in the overnight session was short and below the previous session’s price range for the first 8 hours after which it had started to correct above VWAP. ES attempted to get back into Thursday’s range but failed.
ONO: 4390
ONH: 4390
ONL: 4355.5
ONRange: 28.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was below Thursday’s price range and VAL. It was also below the T+2 low. There was about an 8 point gap from the previous session’s RTH LOD. The gap was filled in the first few minutes of the IB period. There was a strong bid at the open which took the auction into Thursday’s value area. After about 15 minutes, inventory corrected and supply shoved the market back down below value and the previous day’s price range. The auction could not get down to the IBO before short traders covered and the price began to stabilize. Responsive long traders provided ES with a bounce off VWAP before initiative short traders brought it down for a retest. Supply ran out and buyers took ES back up and erased the previous IBH near the end of the IB period.
IBO: 4376.5
IBH: 4403.75
IBL: 4376.25
IBRange: 27.5
Remaining Session:
Today’s RTH session was quite the roller coaster. After the US open, long traders tried and failed to erase the IBH. From this point on, supply overwhelmed the bid for the next two hours. ES dropped out of Thursday’s price range. Short traders took the auction below VWAP and erased the IBL. At 4364.5, supply ran out. Long traders gobbled up the offers for the next 90 minutes and erased the IBH. At 4406.25, supply was met. Short traders overwhelmed the bid and sank ES 40 points over the ensuing 90 minutes. At 4365, supply ran out again and ES rallied 40 points to the upside before finding a seller and closing several points below 4390.
Links
Sam Ro describes why inflation might be peaking.
Allison Schrager explains why inflation and the office might be here to stay.
Sahil Bloom describes his framework on regret and decision making.