ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/14/2022
Market Overview
The market is closed today. However, the theme for this week was that rallies got sold. Equities sold off yesterday with 9 of 11 sectors finishing with losses. All major indices were in the red, as well as the big 5 mega caps.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: MoM (month-over-month) ES is still OTFD (One Time Framing Down) as well as OTFU (One Time Framing Up) since February. The levels still remain. The February low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5.
Weekly Time Frame: ES is still OTFD on the weekly chart. 4588.75 was the prior week’s high. The next weekly swing low of 4129.5 is well below ES at the moment.
Daily Time Frame: Since hitting a high of 4631 on 3/29, ES continues to trend down. However, this week has consolidated into a channel. By briefly peaking above Wednesday’s HOD, ES broke up the string of sessions OTFD. The look above also erased any chance of a second consecutive inside day. Thursday’s auction nearly erased Wednesday’s LOD, but fell short by one point.
4-Hour Time Frame: The 4-hour chart really shows how ES ping-ponged back and forth in a channel the majority of this holiday shortened week. The RTH gap created from Friday 4/8 into Monday 4/11 has acted as sort of a resistance. The auction shrunk the gap several times this week but has never been able to completely fill it. On the downside, 4375.5 was the low of the week. In addition, 4382.5 a swing low from the Tuesday Globex session, was breached once later that day momentarily. But later attempts to retest that area on Wednesday and Thursday were front run with bidders squashing the supply.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Overnight Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4445.5
ETH VPOC: 4440.5
ETH VAL: 4435
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4432.5
RTH VPOC: 4419
RTH VAL: 4395.5
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4449.5
T+2 Low: 4387
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
In RTH, there’s plenty of single prints and excess at the top of the profile, as well as near the bottom.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At Wednesday’s close, wholesale was positioned long. The Tokyo open was inside of Wednesday’s price range and value area. Yesterday’s overnight inventory remained long during the Tokyo trading hours and peaked above the prior day’s VAH. When the London session opened, inventory got short and went below VWAP, the previous day’s close and VPOC. After the first 30 minutes of the London session, ES traded sideways for the remainder of Globex, while making slightly lower lows heading into RTH.
ONO: 4438.5
ONH: 4455.75
ONL: 4428.75
ONRange: 27
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
Thursday’s US open was just inside of the previous day’s price range, value area and below the T+2 high. There were no gaps from the Wednesday RTH range to Thursday’s open. Heading into RTH, ES began making a slight rally. At the open, ES ripped to the upside to take another look above the prior day’s VAH. The top 5 were down as a group at the open as this was occurring. As ES went up, it could not erase the ONH, which was tested and well defended. Supply and responsive shorts gave a strong push and forced ES back down by 30 points, erasing the ONL and placing the auction well into Wednesday’s value area. With ES below VWAP at this point, long traders attempted another rally but failed to get ES back up to the prior day’s POC or reclaim VWAP before shorts overwhelmed their bid again. ES continued to move down and establish a new LOD. For the final 15 minutes of the IB period, shorts covered and stabilized the price.
IBO: 4444
IBH: 4455.75
IBL: 4413.75
IBRange: 42
Remaining Session:
Right after the IB period, ES traded rangebound in a rising channel for about an hour. ES made higher highs and higher lows ranging from 4427.75 to 4416.75, then 4428.5 to 4417, so on and so on. ES broke below the trend right before the lunch hour in which it gradually sank to a new LOD @ 4403. Supply ran out and longs slowly bid ES up towards VWAP. After reaching 4427.25 nearly 90 minutes later, long traders ran out of steam. Supply slowly slammed the bid over the next two hours to again establish a new LOD and closing below 4400 for the 2nd time this week.