ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/13/2022
Market Overview
Producer prices rose 1.4% in March and 11.2% from a year ago, the largest YoY (year over year) increase in history. Nine market sectors were positive today with financials and utilities the only two in the red. Equity, bond and crude futures were all positive. Bitcoin and Ethereum rose as well.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: MoM (month-over-month) ES is still OTFD (One Time Framing Down) as well as OTFU (One Time Framing Up) since February. The levels still remain. The February low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5.
Weekly Time Frame: ES is still OTFD on the weekly chart. 4588.75 was the prior week’s high. The next weekly swing low of 4129.5 is well below ES at the moment.
Daily Time Frame: Since hitting a high of 4631 on 3/29, ES continues to trend down. ES is OTFD the past four trading days. Today was the first day ES couldn’t establish a lower low as bidders came in to defend. Today was an inside day as all the action was contained inside yesterday’s price range.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Globex Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4415
ETH VPOC: 4390
ETH VAL: 4384.5
ES RTH Volume Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4449.5
RTH VPOC: 4442.5
RTH VAL: 4408
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4466.75
T+2 Low: 4375.50
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Volume Profile:
Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH Market Profile:
There’s some excess on the top and bottom of the profile and single prints in the middle above 4410.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was short. The ONO was inside of the previous day’s price range and slightly below the ETH volume profile value area. Inventory overnight was mostly long, spending almost 12 hours above VWAP. Heading into RTH, and once the PPI number was released, short traders sold and drove ES down below VWAP. The corrective move erased the previous ONL but couldn’t quite get lower than yesterday’s LOD before short sellers covered.
ONO: 4396.75
ONH: 4428.50
ONL: 4384
ONRange: 44.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside the previous day’s RTH range and below the RTH volume profile value area and T+2 low. There were no gaps. Initially, at the opening bell there was some liquidation. Then long traders bid the auction up above VWAP by several points where it chopped around for 15 minutes. Longs couldn’t drive the market up any higher as inventory came in and pushed ES back down below VWAP during the transitioning moments between A and B period. Short traders filled the bids and pushed ES down but couldn’t get to the A-period low. Supply ran out and long traders filled the ask and ES crept back up towards VWAP again. It traded with chop slightly above and below this area for the final 15 minutes of the IB period.
IBO: 4389.5
IBH: 4411.75
IBL: 4387
IBRange: 24.75
Remaining Session:
Following the RTH open, ES sold off for about 10 minutes before inventory dried up. It could not erase the IBL before short sellers covered and long traders bought the ask. They moved the auction up over the next four hours, with higher highs and lows. The ONH was erased in the process. Moments before the US closing bell, ES reached a HOD @ 4449.5. Inventory corrected moments later and ES closed above 4440.
Links
Derek Thompson explains why a 9-to-10 is the new 9-to-5.
Ben Carlson looks at the US stock market's returns and earnings with a wide angle lens.