ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/07/2022
Market Overview
Three of four indices were positive today, ending consecutive days with losses. ES erased the initial selloff in RTH to rally and finish the day in the green. RTY was the sole loser. Bond and crude futures fell again.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: Here are the highs and lows of the past two months, which are currently OTFU. The February high was 4586 and low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5.
Weekly Time Frame: If ES can’t rise above 4631, this week will begin OTFD. The low of 4415 from the week of 3/21 is still the swing low on the downside. In today’s session, inventory got fully liquidated and sold before coming near that level.
Daily Time Frame: Since hitting a high of 4631 on 3/29, ES is trending down on the daily chart. ES has been OTFD for the last three sessions. If it can’t erase 4517.25 to the upside, the OTFD will continue. Today’s session tested and failed to break 4444.5. Longs successfully defended this level in the past two sessions. The 20-period Fib 68.7 (4442.67) is also in this vicinity.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4487
ETH VPOC: 4472
ETH VAL:4450
ES RTH Market Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4487
RTH VPOC: 4470
RTH VAL: 4448
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4499.5
T+2 Low: 4444.5
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Market Profile and Volume Profile:
There was low volume in today’s profile from 4487 through 4495.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was positioned short. The ONO was inside of the prior day’s value area and price range. It was also below the T+2 low. Inventory was ranging in the ON session. During the Asian open, ES inventory was short. It got long leading up to the London open in which bidders took the price above VWAP and yesterday’s value area. It remained long for about six hours. After ES reached an ONH just shy of 4500, inventory sold and flushed price back down into the previous day’s value area / below VWAP.
ONO: 4471.25
ONH: 4496.75
ONL: 4454.25
ONRange: 42.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of yesterday’s price range and value area/near TPOC by a few ticks. It was below the T+2 low with no gaps from yesterday’s RTH. The internals showed market weakness. With inventory being sold right before the open, responsive buying occurred shortly after the open and ES could not get down to the ONL. The first 30 minutes saw a rotation up and the 2nd half hour rotated down. The 2nd half hour (B) erased A’s high by a couple of ticks but could not erase A’s low. ES was balanced and traded inside of a 20-25 point price range in the first half hour. The range got smaller in the 2nd half hour as it went back and forth in a 10 point range.
IBO: 4466
IBH: 4486.75
IBL: 4462.5
IBRange: 24.25
Remaining Session:
Following the US open, the ranging price action continued with 10-15 point swings back and forth with micro chop. This happened with a steady decline over the first two hours after the IB period. Lower highs and lower lows were created until the auction hit the prior day’s LOD to the tick. Supply ran out here again, a few points from the 20-day Fib 61.8 level. Longs slammed the offer for the next three hours as ES staged a 70 point rally. The auction busted through yesterday’s value area, the ONH and the 4500 level. ES corrected slightly off the HOD and closed a few points shy of 4500.
Links
Block announced it's rolling out new Bitcoin features within Cash App
Updates from Bitcoin 2022 in Miami
What Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in her first speech focused on crypto.