ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/05/2022
Market Overview
The indices and mega caps all erased most of their gains from Monday. Longer term bond futures sold off with the Fed Governor’s statements today. Crude oil futures also dipped more than 1%.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: Here are the highs and lows of the past two months, which are currently OTFU. The February high was 4586 and low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5. With today’s selloff, ES began trading below the March close of 4541.
Weekly Time Frame: For the past three weeks, ES has been OTFU. ES will have to defend 4501.25 in order to continue the trend for a fourth week. Today’s selloff put in a LOD about 6-7 points away from 4501.25. With FOMC tomorrow, longs might have their hands full to protect this level.
Daily Time Frame: Since hitting a high of 4631 on 3/29, ES is trending down on the daily chart. The auction hasn’t gone below the 4501.25 level, highlighted above, in the last 8 trading sessions (since 3/25). Shorts are making a serious threat to breaking this level and trading back into the 4400’s. If 4500 is broken, 4493/4446/4415 are areas to watch on the downside.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES ETH Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4579.5
ETH VPOC: 4554
ETH VAL: 4535.50
ES RTH Market Profile for today:
RTH VAH: 4571.25
RTH POC: 4548.25
RTH VAL: 4533.25
Prior Day RTH High and Low (Tomorrow’s T+2):
T+2 High: 4580
T+2 Low: 4532.75
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Market Profile and Volume Profile:
There was much more volume in today than the previous day. Today’s RTH session took out both the overhead NPOC and the underneath NPOC. It left overhead excess and single prints 4582.5 to 4588.75. Single prints were also left from 4526.25 through 4533.25 and bottom excess from 4507.75 to 4520.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was positioned long. The ONO was within yesterday’s price range, value area, and above the T+2 high. Overnight inventory was short. It was balanced for most of Globex. During London’s open, longs drove the auction up beyond the prior day’s VA and took out the NPOC @ 4582.25. Supply was met and shorts pushed ES down below VWAP and created new ONL’s.
ONO: 4576.25
ONH: 4587.25
ONL: 4563
ONRange: 24.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of yesterday’s price range and RTH TPO value area. It opened up near the RTH POC, above the T+2 high with no gaps from the prior day. Longs quickly absorbed supply and bid the auction up over VWAP and yesterday’s value area. ES spent much of the first half hour above 4572. In the 2nd half hour, ES took out the ONH before inventory was found @ 4588.75. The bid got slammed by shorts who took the market down 35 points in a couple of minutes, back into the PDVA and below VWAP. The ONL and IBL were both erased during the selloff. After hitting a new LOD, ES traded in nearly a 10 point range for the final 10 minutes of the US open.
IBO: 4562.25
IBH: 4588.75
IBL: 4548.5
IBRange: 40.25
Remaining Session:
Immediately after the US open, ES was still selling down. Supply ran out about 10 minutes post-IB and longs attempted to move the auction back up toward VWAP and the middle of yesterday’s value area. At 4565, which happened to be close to yesterday’s POC and 5-day Fib 50% level, supply was met again and longs could no longer defend this price level for the rest of RTH. The auction trended down for the remainder of RTH, making one short rally to retest yesterday’s volume VAL. But ES continued to make lower highs and lows for the remainder of the session and erased the nPOC @ 4526.25.
Links
A clever little way that sports bettors have found their edge with betting apps.