ESM22 Daily Debrief 04/04/2022
Market Overview
The mega caps shouldered the load today as evident in the big green boxes below. Nasdaq / NQ led all the indices.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: Here are the highs and lows of the past two months, which are currently OTFU. The February high was 4586 and low was 4101.75. The March high was 4631 and the low was 4129.5.
Weekly Time Frame: ES has broken out of a weekly downtrend which started the week of 01/03. For the past three weeks ES has been OTFU. ES will have to defend 4501.25 in order to continue the trend for a fourth week.
Daily Time Frame: ES took out the 4555.50 from the prior day, ending the OTFD on the daily chart. On the upside, the 3/31 HOD @ 4614.25 is an area to keep an eye on. On the downside, the T+2 ETH HOD and LOD of 4555.50 and 4501.25 are levels to watch.
Performance & Technicals
5-Day Performance
Technicals
ES Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4578.75
ETH VPOC: 4577.75
ETH VAL: 4552.75
RTH VAH: 4572.25
RTH POC: 4563.25
RTH VAL: 4550.25
Prior Day RTH Hi and Lo (Tomorrow’s T+2):
PDHi: 4545
PDLo: 4501.25
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH Volume Profile:
Here is a chart of the past five sessions with ETH/RTH Market Profile and Volume Profile:
Today’s session had single prints on the TPO Market Profile chart from 4532.75 through 4544. On the upside, there’s a NPOC @ 4582.25 from 3/31. On the downside, there’s a NPOC at 4526.25 from 4/1.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
On Friday’s close, wholesale was long. The open was inside of the prior day’s range and value area (above VPOC). It was in between the T+2 low and high. Inventory in the overnight session was mixed and ranging. It had some periods where it got long but it corrected both times down below VWAP. During the Asian hours, the auction got long. During the London open, ES sold off and got below VWAP. Longs were able to move the auction back up and over VWAP and balanced for several hours before testing VWAP right before RTH. Plenty of time and volume was spent at 4534.75 and another HVN was at 4544.50.
ONO: 4538.25
ONH: 4551.25
ONL: 4527.75
ONRange: 23.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of the prior day’s RTH price range and above the RTH VAH. There was no gap between the prior day and today and the open was inside the T+2 range. The market internals were mixed but the starting 5 mega caps were strong, as was TRIN. The shorts sold the market down at the open but could not reach the ONL as supply ran out prior. Close to the prior day’s RTH VPOC, longs bid the market up and over VWAP. Eventually they were able to move ES above the ONH and prior day’s HOD to put an end to the OTFD on the daily time frame. In the second half hour, shorts sold the market back down to VWAP before supply quickly ran out and ES bounced back up to make new HOD’s. In the 2nd half hour of IB, plenty of time was spent above 4550 and the VPOC for RTH moved up to 4555.75.
IBO: 4541.25
IBH: 4558.75
IBL: 4532.75
IBRange: 26
Remaining Session:
After the US open, the chop continued. ES sold down 4550.75, but could not break 4550 before supply ran out. Longs moved ES up to 4565.75 before encountering supply. ES found balance here and traded within this range until longs could no longer absorb the inventory. The auction fell to 4556.75 before the inventory ran out and buyers pushed ES back up. ES trended up for about 2 hours, enduring and absorbing some momentary corrections and backfills before it made higher highs on the day. The auction reached a HOD @ 4580 before it found acceptance in a 5 point range for the remainder of RTH. It attempted to test the NPOC but was front ran by shorts.
Links
Very insightful conversation on TCAF with Adam Parker.
A look into Chris Paul's business ventures plus three valuable lessons.