ESM22 Daily Debrief 03/30/2022
Market Overview
Many risk assets were in the red today including all four major indices. Crude oil and bond futures rose, whiles rates fell. ES gave up half of yesterday’s gains and had its first down day in the last five trading sessions.
Futures
ESM22: 4596 (-0.64%)
NQM22: 15071.50 (-1.09%)
YMM22: 35117 (-0.21%)
RTYM22: 2088.5 (-2.01%)
CLM22: 107.82 (+3.43%)
ZNM22: 122’200 (+0.24%)
ZBM22: 149’14 (+0.34%)
Crypto
BTCUSD: 47078.03 (-0.79%)
ETHUSD: 3386.68 (-0.44%)
BNBUSD: 442.2 (+1.80%)
XRPUSD: 0.86 (+0.37%)
ADAUSD: 1.19 (0.00%)
Interest Rates
US03M: 0.52% (-7.14%)
US02Y: 2.31% (-2.49%)
US05Y: 2.44% (-2.32%)
US10Y: 2.35% (-2.00%)
US30Y: 2.48% (-1.04%)
Stocks (Starting 5)
$AAPL: 177.77 (-1.19)
$MSFT: 313.86 (-0.49%)
$GOOGL: 2838.77 (-0.40%)
$AMZN: 3326.02 (-1.78%)
$TSLA: 1093.99 (-0.51%)
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: With today’s close, ES was still above the February highs.
Weekly Time Frame: Despite today’s loss, ES still closed above the highs from the weeks of 01/31 and 02/07. The next upside target remains the high from the week of 01/17 @ 4671.75. Last week’s high of 4539 might be an area of support if ES meets significant supply.
Daily Time Frame: Today’s session was a textbook “inside day”, as all of the trading remained inside the price range from yesterday. No new higher high or lower low was made. In terms of range, ES has been below the 14 SMA for the last ten trading days. With tomorrow being month / quarter end, along with Friday being the start of a new month and the NFP report, does ES finally break out of this little lull?
Performance & Technicals
ES performance over the last 5 days:
ES Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4619.5
ETH VPOC: 4615.5
ETH VAL: 4596
RTH VAH: 4618.5
RTH VPOC: 4598
RTH VAL: 4594
Prior Day RTH Hi and Lo (Tomorrow’s T+2):
PDHi: 4631
PDLo: 4581.75
Here is an hourly chart of the past five sessions with ETH Volume Profile:
ES was very slow and choppy today and traded in a smaller range than the previous session. Most of today’s volume was inside of yesterday’s value area.
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale’s position was long. The ONO was within the prior day’s price range and several points above the VAH. Overnight inventory was balanced initially. During the London open, supply moved the auction down into the prior day’s VPOC and below VWAP.
ONO: 4621.25
ONH: 4627.5
ONL: 4602
ONRange: 25.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The RTH open was inside of yesterday’s price range and within the top of yesterday’s value area. The first 30 minutes of IB was very choppy as bids and asks were hit inside of a tight 10 point range. Longs attempted to push the price outside of the prior day’s value area and ONO but could not sustain the bid. Supply moved the auction down and then the chop continued. Going into the 2nd half hour, longs made a little push and the price got above the ONO. Supply came back in immediately and moved the auction back to yesterday’s VA. The slow choppiness continued for the remainder of the US open. Major longs and shorts seemed to be sitting on the sidelines.
IBO: 4614
IBH: 4622.5
IBL: 4608.75
IBRange: 13.75
Remaining Session:
After the US Open, ES remained choppy. Shorts gradually moved the auction lower and they absorbed any and all responsive buying from longs and shorts that covered. ES went and made lower highs and lows for several hours as it moved below the prior day’s value area. Once the auction hit 4574.75, several handles above the T+2 high, supply ran out. Longs stepped in, hit the offers and moved ES back above 4600 before it closed RTH a few points below.