ESM22 Daily Debrief 03/24/2022
Market Overview
Today was a strong day for all risk assets. All indices rose along with pot stocks and crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum are looking to break out from beneath their 200 EMA’s. Crude and bond futures fell in today’s session.
Futures
ESM22: 4512.50 (+1.46%)
NQM22: 14763.75 (+2.19%)
YMM22: 34604 (+1.03%)
RTYM22: 2070.8 (+1.14%)
CLM22: 112.34 (-2.25%)
ZNM22: 122’295 (-0.18%)
ZBM22: 149’11 (-0.13%)
Stocks (Top 5)
$AAPL: 174.07 (+2.27%)
$MSFT: 304.10 (+1.54%)
$GOOGL: 2831.44 (+2.38%)
$AMZN: 3272.99 (+0.15%)
$TSLA: 1013.92 (+1.48%)
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: On a monthly time frame, March has risen above the February open again. Will it remain there and be able to test the top of the Feb wick at 4578.75.
Weekly Time Frame: The weekly candle is positive once again. 4585 is still the next swing high from the week of 2/7. On the downside, 4326.75 is the high from the week of 3/7. The auction may find buyers in this area if ES ever gets down there.
Daily Time Frame: Today’s session erased all of yesterday’s losses as ES hit a new high for the week. The 2/11 high of 4520.50 is well within reach. Next would be the 4585 area as witnessed on the weekly chart. 4433 is the low from 3/22 and will be an area of interest if ES reverses tomorrow. If that gives way, then 4415 is the next swing low on the daily chart.
Performance & Technicals
ES performance over the last 5 days:
ES Volume Profile for today:
ETH VAH: 4514.75
ETH VPOC: 4513.25
ETH VAL: 4472.75
RTH VAH: 4514.75
RTH VPOC: 4513.25
RTH VAL: 4476.75
Prior Day RTH Hi and Lo (Tomorrow’s T+2):
PDHi: 4493.75
PDLo: 4444.75
Here is an hourly chart of the past five sessions with ETH Volume Profile:
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
At yesterday’s close, wholesale was short. The overnight session opened within the prior day’s price range and below the value area. It was also below the T+2 low @ 4467. Overnight inventory was long as the auction moved into the prior day’s value area. It moved up to 4481.25 before hitting supply and then traded in a range where a LVN existed from the prior day.
ONO: 4449.25
ONH: 4481.25
ONL: 4445.75
ONRange: 35.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The IBO was inside of the prior day’s value area, below VPOC and slightly above the T+2 low. Overnight inventory had been long so the US open had an inventory correction down to 4456 when supply shut off. Shorts got trapped and stops got ran as the auction moved up. This price action moved ES outside of the PDVA and back in, all within several points of the PDVAL and 200 DMA. What followed was several moments of back and forth chop while ES bounced up 20 points to 4478.25. The auction met supply in this area which pushed the price back down 15 points and trapped longs. The market internals were mixed and did not give a clear reading on direction.
Does the auction have any outside sellers?
IBO: 4468
IBH: 4478.25
IBL: 4456
IBRange: 22.25
Remaining Session:
After the US open, ES bounced several ticks below the PDVAL @ 4460.75. From there, the auction moved through the bottom to the top of yesterday’s value area. ES moved above the PDVAH and attempted to crack 4500 again but failed. ES was front ran as shorts came in. At 4498.50, a new HOD was set and the auction sank 20 points until supply ran out again and longs regained control. The price crept higher and balanced again near the top of the PDVA. In the final couple of hours of RTH, shorts covered and longs pushed the auction up 30+ points to new HODs and eventually closing above 4510. The all-day roller coaster price action indicated that wholesale was accumulating inventory at lower cost levels and then shortly distributing that inventory several points higher.