ESM22 Daily Debrief 03/22/2022
Market Overview
Equities continue their hot streak. ES has finished with a +1% gain in 5 of the last 6 trading sessions.
Futures
ESM22: 4505 (+1.18%)
NQM22: 14654 (+1.97%)
YMM22: 34709 (+0.79%)
RTYM22: 2082.3 (+0.95%)
Stocks (Top 5)
$AAPL: 168.86 (+2.08%)
$MSFT: 304.06 (+1.64%)
$GOOGL: 2797.36 (+2.77%)
$AMZN: 3297.78 (+2.10%)
$TSLA: 993.98 (+7.91%)
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly Time Frame: On the monthly time-frame, the March candle has now moved above the February open. March has made a higher low on the monthly chart. However, the swing high from Feb is 4586 which needs to be taken out to create a higher high.
Weekly Time Frame: On the weekly time-frame, the 4484.5 swing high from the week of 2/14 was surpassed. 4585 is the next swing high from the week of 2/7. The weekly chart has broken out of a downtrend that began on the week of 1/7.
Daily Time Frame: On the daily time frame, ES has been OTF up for the last 6 sessions (including today). It has made several higher highs and higher lows. The nearest swing high is from 2/11 @ 4520.50.
Performance & Technicals
ES performance over the last 5 days:
Today’s Value Area:
VAH: 4507.25
VPOC: 4499.75
VAL: 4488.25
LVN’s formed between 4446 - 4461, 4470 - 4475, and 4483.5 - 4486.5. Everything above 4507.5 was also low volume. Today’s profile was P-shaped.
Below is the composite profile of the past 5 trading sessions.
VAH: 4473.5
VPOC: 4453.5
VAL: 4322.50
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Despite some volatility in the latter part of the prior day’s RTH, the market makers ended the session with the auction long. Today’s ONO was inside of the prior day’s trading range and value area. ON inventory was short to begin the session. The auction tested below the prior day’s value area but was rejected and returned to value. During the London open, inventory started getting long. Wholesale moved the auction up and out of yesterday’s value area and eventually tested yesterday’s HOD. ES failed to get beyond the PDHOD, but began to trade sideways above the PDVA.
ONO: 4456.75
ONH: 4472.5
ONL: 4433
ONRange: 39.5
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
Initial Balance (IB) Session / US Open:
The IB period opened up within the prior day’s trading range and above the value area. The market internals were all strong. The longs took the auction up past the ONH and yesterday’s HOD. It got up to 4483.25 and encountered some supply. ES remained in a range between 4477 - 4483 for several moments as bids and asks were filled. In the 2nd half hour, the supply was absorbed and the auction took the 4484.5 swing high from 2/16/22. Longs kept pushing the market up and traded volume in an area between 4486 and 4490, hitting a new HOD 4496.75.
IBO: 4467.25
IBH: 4496.75
IBL: 4467
IBRange: 29.75
Remaining Session:
In the first hour after IB, longs raised the auction higher to 4502.5, then 4506. The session’s value area and VPOC followed this move upward as well. ES found value in this area as it traded in a horizontal channel about 20 points wide for several hours. Towards the end of RTH, longs moved the price up and out of the channel. ES established a new HOD before supply was met and price auctioned lower. Once this bout of selling was absorbed, longs overwhelmed the asks again and hit another HOD before it closed about 9 points lower. ES closed above 4500 for the first time in over a month.