12/15/2022 Synopsis
One day after FOMC, the S&P 500 has worst day in over a month
Market Overview
Equity indices all lost greater than 2% post-FOMC. The S&P 500 had its worst day since the last FOMC meeting in November when the Fed hiked 75 bps. The Nasdaq led the way on the downside, losing 3.23%. Every S&P sector was in negative territory. Communications was the worst performing sector, down 3.90%. Energy held up the best, giving up 0.61%.
The yield on the 3-month lost 1 bp to 4.22. The 2-year was up 2.6 bps to 4.24%. The 10-year yield fell 3.3 bps to 3.45%.
The US Dollar index $DXY jumped 0.95% to 104.60.
Crude oil slid 1.5% to 76.11.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is OTFU from October to November. It will have two consecutive green months for the first time since summer 2021. ES also closed November above its 10-month MA for the first time since March.
W/W: ES ended OTFU on a weekly basis and closed back below it’s 40-week MA.
D/D: ES is OTFD and briefly fell below the bottom of the recent balance area before closing back inside.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
[insert TPO chart here]
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3908 to 3909; 3950.50 to 3985.25
RTH Gap: 3985.25 to 3997
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was mostly short. After buyers failed to lift the offer above 4043, resulting in a triple top, supply pressured ES for the rest of Globex. ES fell and dipped below the prior day’s low. At 3969, sellers couldn’t lower the bid. Strong demand led to a double bottom at this level. VPOC was 3988.75.
Range: 74
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped down and was below the prior day’s low and T+2 low. Supply continued its domination in the opening hour, as ES fell 50-handles. After the IB period, the market continued to drop another 25-points. At 3908, supply shut off and the bid couldn’t go any lower. Short covering stabilized ES before closing at 3922.25.
Range: 77.25