12/14/2022 Synopsis
Equities were up in the morning and early afternoon. However, all those gains were given away after the Fed's announcement of a 50 bps rate hike along with their forward guidance.
Market Overview
The Fed raised rates by 0.5% and equities gave up all their early gains. The Nasdaq fell the hardest, losing 0.76%. The VIX also went lower as volatility spiked, going down 6.25% today. Health care was the only positive S&P sector, and it did it by a slim margin of 0.16%. Financials fared the worst, dropping 1.25%. Below are all the rate hikes along with the S&P’s reaction in 2022.
The 3-month T-bill yield fell 2 bps to 4.23%. The yield on the 2-year note lost 1.1 bps to 4.21%. The 10-year yield slid 2.2 bps to 3.48%.
The US Dollar index $DXY fell 0.37% to its lowest level since June. It closed at 103.62.
Crude accelerated 2.5% to 77.28.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is OTFU from October to November. It will have two consecutive green months for the first time since summer 2021. ES also closed November above its 10-month MA for the first time since March.
W/W: ES ended OTFU on a weekly basis and closed back below it’s 40-week MA.
D/D: ES remains in balance and despite trading underneath the prior day’s low, it managed to close above its 200-day MA.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3997 to 4012; 4086.50 to 4090.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. Inventory during the overnight session was balanced/flat inside a 28-point range. There was no follow through, either long or short. Long traders couldn’t lift the offer above 4072.50 as supply is trapped in the single print area from the prior day. Short traders couldn’t lower the bid under 4044.50, with shorts trapped in the single print area from two days ago. VPOC for the overnight session was 4055.
Range: 28
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was below the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. There wasn’t much supply in the opening hour as climbed nearly 30-points, surpassing the overnight high. ES continued to slowly OTFU through C and D-period to get through the lower set of single prints from the prior day. At 4090.75, buyers couldn’t lift the offer. Once the Fed announced their 50 bps rate hike and during Fed Chair Powell’s media session, ES dropped 90-points. Supply shut off at 3997, at which point buyers responded with a 75-point rally before hitting supply again. ES then gave back 60-points as price action whip-sawed up and down. Short covering finally stabilized the market going into the end of RTH where ES closed at 4038.25.
Range: 93.75