11/21/2022 Synopsis
Equity indices fell again in a slow day to start this short week for the markets. Disney CEO makes a return.
Market Overview
Every index ended down with Nasdaq leading the fall. The Dow Jones held up the best only slipping -0.13%. The S&P 500 remains stuck below its 200-day MA. Seven S&P sectors were up on the day. Consumer staples XLP 0.00%↑ led the way, while consumer discretionary XLY 0.00%↑ slid the most.
US Treasury yields were up and down. The 3-month bill slid -0.96 to 4.11%. The 2-year note popped +0.53% to 4.56%. The 10-year note rose +0.05% to 3.83%.
The US Dollar index $DXY gained +0.75% to finish the day at 107.76.
Crude oil slipped -0.09% to 80.04.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: As long as ES remains above 3502, it will be OTFU. September’s high at 4175 is the next upside target.
W/W: ES is OTFU as it remained above the prior week’s low for the second straight week. ES broke out above the prior week’s high but failed to remain as it closed inside last week’s close.
D/D: The past 7-sessions have been in balance and rotational between 3912.50 and 4050.75.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3937.5 to 3943.25; 3968.25 to 3970.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the previous day’s value area. Other than a brief push up above Friday’s VAH during the Asian open, inventory during Globex was 100% short. Price action wouldn’t accept above the prior day’s value area. The bid couldn’t rise above 3982, where longs were trapped above creating supply. ES slowly dropped throughout the session. Supply ran out as 3948, 6-points underneath Friday’s VAL. Shorts at this level covered and stabilized the auction. This resulted in a 15-point rally to move ES above VWAP. VPOC during the overnight session was 3959.75
Range: 34
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside of the prior day’s value area and T+2 high. During A-period, there was a move higher on an inventory correction. ES failed to get over the overnight high or VAH from Friday. As a result, buyers faded and supply pressured ES lower. ES slid 30-points lower over the next four TPO periods, absorbing any responsive buyers. ES sank below the previous day’s low but failed to move the bid below 3937.50. Buyers showed up and absorbed supply, causing it to shut off. A 30-point climb over the next four TPO periods followed. ES rose above VWAP and got back into the prior day’s value area. However, buyers lost steam and could not lift the bid over 3968.25 during I-period. ES dropped about 16-points before more short covering at 3952 in L-period. ES’ price action formed symmetrical triangle for the remainder of RTH, closing at 3958.
Range: 33