11/18/2022 Synopsis
Stock indices all registered a small gain on Friday but finish red for the week. Existing home sales fell for the 9th straight month.
Market Overview
Equities all ended the week up on Friday. The Dow and Russell 2000 were the leaders. The Nasdaq trailed by gaining 1 bp. Nine S&P sectors were up while energy XLE 0.00%↑ and communication services XLC 0.00%↑ each dropped.
US Treasury yields all rose. The 3-month bill climbed to 4.15% (+0.61%). The 2-year note jumped to 4.54% (+1.82%). The 10-year note moved up to 3.83% (+1.59%).
The US Dollar index rose +0.26% to 106.97.
Crude oil lost -1.58% to 80.11.
Events this week:
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: As long as ES remains above 3502, it will be OTFU. September’s high at 4175 is the next upside target.
W/W: ES is OTFU as it remained above the prior week’s low for the second straight week. ES broke out above the prior week’s high but failed to remain as it closed inside last week’s close.
D/D: ES went above the previous day’s high momentarily before closing inside of the prior day’s body. Nonetheless OTFD has ended. The past 6-sessions have been in balance and rotational between 3912.50 and 4050.75.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (Friday)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of Friday’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3942.50 to 3943.50; 3982.75 to 3991.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the previous day’s value area by 3-ticks. ES spent the first 10-hours of Globex short, roughly 65% of the time. It couldn’t break the prior day’s RTH high and corrected down. At 3943.50, supply shut off before touching the previous day’s 50% mark. Buyers then carried ES long through VWAP, the VAH and previous day’s RTH high. Longs continued to lift the offer as the auction eventually surpassed the previous day’s overnight high. Supply was at 3994, where a weak high was put in right before RTH. VPOC during Globex was 3987.
Range: 50.50
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped up and was above the prior day’s RTH high. It was also inside the T+2 high and low. The opening hour saw an inventory correction with supply pressuring the market lower. ES fell 40-points and filled the overnight gap. ES crept lower and then shorts covered to defend the 3953 price level. ES rallied 20-points before buyers faded and supply was met at 3972.50. The auction dropped 30 more handles, bottoming at 3942.50 as sellers couldn’t follow through to lower the bid. Shorts stabilized the market as it remained rangebound for several hours. Then in L-period, ES broke out of the range as buyers continued to lift the offer on little supply. ES went above VWAP for the first time since the opening hour. Longs couldn’t lift ES above 3982.75, and the 1st standard deviation, before settling back down and closing RTH at 3971.50.
Range: 49.25