11/17/2022 Synopsis
S&P dipped for the second straight session. US homebuilding showed further weakness. Nancy Pelosi announced she's stepping down as House speaker.
Market Overview
Equity indices all fell for the 2nd straight day. The Dow held up the best only losing 2 bps, while the Russell 2000 fell the most. Energy XLE 0.00%↑ and tech XLK 0.00%↑ were the only S&P sectors to finish green. Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ lost -1.75% to suffer the biggest drop.
US Treasury yields rose. The 3-month bill was flat. The 2-year note climbed to 4.46% (+2.27%). The 10-year note rose to 3.77% (+2.14%).
10Y-3M: -0.36
10Y-2Y: -0.69
The US Dollar index $DXY climbed to 106.69 (+0.38%)
Crude oil collapsed -4.9% to finish at 81.40.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: As long as ES remains above 3502, it will be OTFU.
W/W: As long as ES remains above 3738.25, it will be OTFU.
D/D: ES failed to trade above the prior day’s high for the second straight session and is OTFD.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3913.75 to 3915.25; 3962 to 3962.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the previous day’s value area. Inventory during Globex was balanced for several hours. Overhear supply prevented ES from rising above 3990.25. However, two hours after London’s open, supply applied pressure and pushed ES lower. ES fell 60-points to get below the previous day’s low and T+2 low. Both pivot support levels were were broken down during the selloff.
Range: 77.75
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open gapped down and was below the previous day’s low and T+2 low. ES traded back and forth in a 20 to 25-point range in the first hour of RTH. All of the price action was inside the overnight low and VWAP (3913.75 to 3934.75) as there wasn’t enough follow through in either direction to take out the level. The auction continued to balance inside this range in C and D-period. Longs were finally able to break out in E-period. ES continued to rise and got back into the prior day’s range by 2-ticks. Buyers couldn’t lift the offer above 3962.50. Supply took the auction down 40-handles below the previous day’s range again. At 3926.75, shorts covered which ended the fall and sparked a 40-point rally in the other direction. Buyers took ES to the prior day’s low to the tick before ending RTH 1-point below yesterday’s range.
Range: 48.75