11/14/2022 Synopsis
Equities reversed and lost their gains from earlier in the day. Several Fed officials issued public statements.
Market Overview
Every major index ended the day down after erasing their gains from earlier in the day. The Russell fell the most while the Dow held up best. Every S&P 500 sector was red with the exception of health care.
Stud: Health care XLV 0.00%↑ (+0.09%)
Dud: Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑ (-2.66%)
US Treasury yields were mixed with T-bills and T-bond yields falling. The 2-year T-note closed at 4.393% (+1.01%). The 10-year T-note rose to 3.857% (+0.18%).
The US Dollar index $DXY rose 0.50% to close at $106.945.
Crude oil lost 3.47% to close at $85.87.
“I think what’s really important to emphasize is we’ve done a lot but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time.” - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is still OTFD but after setting new lows for 2022 it rebounded and finished up 7.8%.
W/W: ES gained +5.84% on the week, which was the largest W/W gain since June. ES didn’t trade beneath the previous week’s low of 3704.25 and is OTFU.
D/D: ES continues to consolidate following the big move on Thursday. By failing to erase the prior day’s low for the 2nd straight session, ES is also OTFU.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: 4017.50 (high)
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3964 to 3966.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the prior day’s value area. Inventory during Globex was 100% short, beneath the prior day’s close. The overnight session was flat as price action remained in a 20-point range, sandwiched entirely between Friday’s VAH and VPOC. Long supply above 3996.50 prevented any moves higher. Trapped shorts kept the auction from going below 3977.
Range: 19.50
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. There wasn’t much supply at the open despite ES falling underneath the overnight low momentarily. It couldn’t get down to Friday’s VPOC before supply ran out as the bid held strong at 3974.50. ES rotated to the upside through VWAP. Buyers lifted ES above the overnight high and Friday’s VAH momentarily. Demand faded as supply was met at 4005.50, several points shy of Friday’s high. ES traded in a range from 3979 to 4003.50 from C through F-periods. In G-period, ES broke out of the range as buyers lifted ES above the prior day’s high and to new session highs. The uptrend stalled at 4017.50, where a weak high was left. Demand faded in this area and supply drove ES back down. ES fell 50 points to erase the low from earlier in the session. At 3964, ES reversed as shorts covered and stabilized the auction through the end of RTH.
Range: 53.50