11/11/2022 Synopsis
Equities rose again as the S&P had its best week since June.
Market Overview
Equities closed the week out strong. Every major index was closed up on the day, led by the Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑. Six S&P sectors were positive. Nine sectors are now above their 50-day MA. The only sectors below are utilities and consumer discretionary.
Stud: Energy XLE 0.00%↑ (+2.91%)
Dud: Real Estate XLRE 0.00%↑ (-0.05%)
The US Dollar index $DXY dropped for a second straight session. It lost 1.41% to close $106.42.
Events this week:
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is still OTFD but after setting new lows for 2022 it rebounded and finished up 7.8%.
W/W: ES gained +5.84% on the week, which was the largest W/W gain since June. ES didn’t trade beneath the previous week’s low of 3704.25 and is OTFU.
D/D: ES was in a consolidated range following the prior day’s big bullish move. ES has failed to trade beneath the prior day’s low for two straight sessions and is OTFU.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: 4009.75 (high)
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3951 to 3951.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was just inside the prior day’s high and above the value area. Inventory during the overnight session was mixed. Globex began short as supply was able to get into the prior day’s top two sets of single prints. It couldn’t completely get below the second set of singles before supply ran out at 3957.25. ES then rotated up above VWAP and the prior day’s high. Buyers faded and couldn’t lift the offer above 3997.50, so inventory corrected back down into the prior day’s range. VPOC during Globex was 3981.
Range: 40.25
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s high and above its value area. It was also above the T+2 high. Price action in the first half hour, A-period, was quick and choppy in a 25-point range. Supply pressured ES and it fell to minus 2 standard deviations below VWAP. ES failed to completely get underneath the previous day’s second set of single prints. Buyers came and absorbed supply as ES stopped and reversed at 3951. The auction rotated up but couldn’t gain any follow through over VWAP. Price action in B-period was the same. Supply moved ES back down but it came within 2-ticks of A-periods low before reversing. Buyers lifted ES above A-period’s high and VWAP. ES fell again in C and D periods on lack of follow through from buyers. At 3955.75 buyers were able to absorb supply and ES began to OTFU. In H-period, ES broke out from the RTH session’s range to that point and took out the high. The auction continued to rise as it took out the overnight high. The rally began to slow at 4009.50. Inventory corrected here and traded sideways for the remainder of RTH.
Range: 58.75