11/07/2022 Synopsis
Equities gained for the 2nd straight session ahead of Election Day. Treasury yields were up.
Market Overview
Every index rose today led by the Dow DIA 0.00%↑. Eight S&P sectors were up today with communication services XLC 0.00%↑ leading the way. Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ was the worst performing sector.
US Treasury yields all gained today except for the 3-month T-bill, which finished the day under 4%. The 2-year T-note rose to 4.726% (+1.35%). The 10-year note climbed to 4.216% (+1.27%).
The US Dollar index fell for the 2nd straight day to end at $110.22 (-0.52%).
Events this week:
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is still OTFD but after setting new lows for 2022 it rebounded and finished up 7.8%.
W/W: ES had an outside week in which it traded just above the previous week’s high, as well as below the previous week’s low. It finished down 3.37% and is in balance. ES closed below the 10-week MA.
D/D: ES has been OTFU as the past two sessions failed to trade below the prior day’s low.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: 3800 to 3808.25
RTH Excess: 3771.25 to 3773.75; 3819.50 to 3821.75
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside of the previous day’s value area. ES was short initially but failed to get beneath the prior day’s value area. It crossed above VWAP and remained long as trapped shorts held up the auction. A weak high was put in at 3805 before inventory corrected and failed to get back down to VWAP prior to RTH.
Range: 58.50
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The RTH open was above the previous day’s value area and T+2 high. Shortly after the open, ES fell around 20-handles back into the previous day’s value area with lack of demand. At 3771.25, buyers appeared and supply faded. ES rotated back up but failed to trade above 3800. For several hours, ES rotated back and forth inside the 30-point range from 3771 to 3800. Finally, in J-period, supply diminished and buyers were able to lift ES above this balance zone. Longs took ES above the previous day’s high and rose above the 10-day 50% Fibonacci level but a few points. Ultimately, the buying weakened as they couldn’t lift the offer beyond 3821.75. ES closed RTH at 3812.25
Range: 50.50