10/31/2022 Synopsis
The last session for October was quiet as investors brace for a busy week ahead. The Dow locked in its best month since 1976.
Market Overview
All indices fell today with the Russell remaining flat. For the month, the Dow gained 14%, it’s best month since 1976. The S&P 500 gained 8% after losing more than 9% in September. On the day, every index was red except for energy XLE 0.00%↑. Every sector finished green in October with energy also leading after rising nearly 25%.
Treasury yields all rose today. The 2-year T-note ended at 4.48% (+1.42%). The 10-year was 0.9% to close at 4.05%.
The US Dollar index rose 0.82% to close at $111.58.
The lineup is busy this week. FOMC is on Wednesday where the Fed is expected to announce another 75 bps rate hike, followed by NFP for the month of October on Friday.
Events this week:
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly (5-years), weekly (2-years) and daily (6-months) charts for ES.
M/M: ES is OTFD as it failed to take out the prior month’s high and has traded and closed below the prior month’s low.
W/W: ES is OTFU on a weekly timeframe and has closed above its 10-week MA for the first time since early September.
D/D: Today was an inside day where all price action was inside the previous day’s high and low.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3872.25 to 3873.50; 3900 to 3904.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Globex Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was 100% short. Longs were trapped above 3911.50 and shorts trapped below 3884. There was sufficient demand or supply to initiate a move in either direction overnight.
Range: 30.75
Regular Trading Hours (RTH)
US Session:
The NYSE open was inside of the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. Following a brief stop run, supply moved the market down at the opening bell. ES dipped below the overnight low. Trapped shorts covered at 3872.25 and supply was turned off. The auction rotated up through VWAP on shorts covering. Inventory was hit at 3904.50 as buyers could no longer lift the bid. ES fell and traded in a 25-point channel for the remainder of RTH.
Range: 32.25