05/19/2023 Synopsis
Pause in debt-ceiling talks drags equities lower.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in Friday’s session. 4/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Catalent CTLT 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 V.F. Corporation VFC 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 4.23% (-4.7 bs)
Events this week:
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of Friday’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟢 One time framing up. [Nearest low: 4120]
Daily: 🟢 One time framing up. [Nearest low: 4191.50]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was one tick inside the prior day’s range. The auction broke out of the prior day’s range early during the Asian session. It rotated inside of a 15-point channel for much of the overnight session, at times coming back into the prior day’s range but failed to take out the O-period low from Thursday. Inventory during the overnight session was long going into RTH with VPOC at 4220.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The US open gapped up above the prior day’s high and was also above the T+2 high. The RTH gap was filled during A-period and supply above the overnight high couldn’t be consumed during the Initial Balance (IB) period. A weak high was established at 4225.75, where passive supply was able to absorb any aggressive buyers. This led to a liquidation in D-period which resulted in a drop of 20-handles and break below the overnight low. Sellers continued to push $ES_F lower, taking out trapped shorts from Thursday’s M-period single prints. Finally, passive buyers at 4191.50 took in all of the remaining supply and stabilized the market. The remainder of the RTH session traded sideways inside a 20-points range entirely underneath the overnight low. The session ended south of the -1 standard deviation level.