05/16/2023 Synopsis
Debt-ceiling concerns and economic data drag stocks lower.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session. 1/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Technology XLK 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Advanced Micro Devices AMD 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Caesars Entertainment CZR 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 4.06% (-2.1 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Balance / inside week. [Last 6-weeks: 4062.25 - 4206.25]
Daily: 🟡 Lower highs in a larger balance zone. [Last 7-sessions: 4111.75 - 4173.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. There was no demand overnight as the auction crept lower with wholesale trying to find buyers. The auction exceeded two standard deviations below VWAP momentarily. When the London session opened, sellers moved the bid beneath the stops at the prior day’s I-period low before reversing. Buyers took the auction past the +2 standard deviation level but couldn’t take out supply in front of the prior day’s high. Inventory moved back down below VWAP and was short leading up to RTH. The cost basis for the overnight session was 4144.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and the T+2 range. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. When the US session opened, buyers moved the offer up near the overnight high before being consumed at 4148.75. Supply pushed the bid lower for the remainder of A-period, resulting in a long upper candlewick. Sellers managed to take out the bids at the overnight low and yesterday’s C-low before buyers at 4127 gobbled up the sellers. The auction climbed higher as shorts covered, bringing $ES_F from -3 standard deviations to +1 standard deviation north of VWAP. The auction couldn’t retest the A-high as exhaustion from buyers at 4143.75 created a lower high. The auction was rangebound until sellers liquidated in M-period and managed to erase the B-low and the prior day’s LOD. After the RTH close, shorts covered at 4120 during N-period to bring the auction back inside the -2 standard deviation level.