05/15/2023 Synopsis
Equity markets move higher on reports of positive debt ceiling talks.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session. 7/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Materials XLB 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Utilities XLU 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Western Digital Corporation WDC 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 ONEOK OKE 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 4.00% (-1.3 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Balance / inside week. [Last 6-weeks: 4062.25 - 4206.25]
Daily: 🟡 Inside day in a balance zone. [Last 6-sessions: 4111.75 - 4173.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. In the Asian session, supply was absorbed at 4126.75. This led to a rotation up to 2 standard deviations above VWAP. There was a weak high double top at 4156.25, which prevented buyers from testing the prior day’s high. The session consolidated and wholesale market makers distributed their inventory several handles from the high. Overnight VPOC was 4153.50 and wholesale inventory was long going into RTH despite correcting down to VWAP.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and inside the T+2 range. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. There was supply at the open and sellers pushed $ES_F through the overnight low in the IB period. At 4123, supply ran out after pushing through the stops near Friday’s M-period low. This led to a rotation up on short covering from 2 standard deviations south of VWAP to 2 standard deviations above VWAP. Buyers pushed $ES_F above the monthly and weekly-anchored VWAP to 4155.25. This move was met by strong supply to move the market back down to VWAP. Once this supply was removed from the market, buyers lifted the offer again to the 1st standard deviation north of VWAP. The session closed above Friday’s close and VPOC moved higher at 4148.