05/08/2023 Synopsis
Contrasting consumer inflation outlook leaves equities mixed.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was steady in today’s session. 3/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Communications XLC 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Carnival Corporation CCL 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Catalent CTLT 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 3.98% (-2.7 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Outside week. [Last 5-weeks: 4062.25 - 4206.25]
Daily: 🟡 Inside day in balance zone. [Last 4-days: 4062.25 - 4167]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. The overnight auction was rangebound and entirely inside the prior day’s RTH range. The prior day’s RTH high held firm as buyers couldn’t lift the offer past 4161. There was also a bid beneath 4142.50 that absorbed sellers during the Asian session. Inventory going into the RTH session was long. Overnight VPOC was 4154.50.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. Supply liquidated in the IB-period, moving $ES_F south from +1 standard deviation to -2 standard deviations below VWAP. The auction was able to break the overnight high by 4-ticks before failing to lower the bid below 4141.50. Buyers came and supply faded, which drove $ES_F back up towards VWAP. The auction remained in a 13-point balance range for several TPO periods. In J-period, there was a liquidation that broke the balance area and prior C-period low. Price got to -3 standard deviations south of VWAP before supply was absorbed a couple of points above the prior day’s VPOC. Buyers swiftly lifted the offer and the auction moved higher to exceed +2 standard deviations above VWAP. The A-period high was eclipsed by several ticks before overhead supply absorbed buyers at 4157.50. $ES_F went sideways in an 8-point range from L to O-period, closing in the upper volume distribution from Friday. All of the day’s price action was contained within Friday’s range.