05/03/2023 Synopsis
Equities slide as Fed raises rates by 25 bps.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session. All sectors were negative.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Health care XLV 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Generac Holdings GNRC 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 First Republic Bank FRC 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🟢🔴 3.87% (-8.9 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Balance. [Last 4-weeks: 4068.75 - 4198.25]
Daily: 🟡 One time framing down. [Nearest high: 4167]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was long in a tight price range. There was a lack of supply as the bid at 4131.75, several ticks from the prior day’s close, held firm. Longs that were trapped from the previous day’s single prints provided resistance at 4149.50. Overnight VPOC was 4144.50. $ES_F spent most of the session between the +2 standard deviation level and VWAP. The entire session was inside the +/- 1 standard deviation bands of the previous day.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was just inside the prior day’s value area and below the T+2 low. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. The RTH session was rotational from A through I-period in a 25-point range (4130.75 to 4154.50). It expanded the overnight range slightly but there was no direction as investors awaited the Fed’s rate hike decision. When the rate hike announcement was made and during Fed Chair Powell’s commentary, $ES_F zig zagged back and forth in a 30-40 point range, exceeding the overnight high and 3 standard deviations above VWAP. The single prints from the previous day were completely filled. Buyers disappeared in L-period as sellers began hitting the bid. The auction fell 50-60 points in L and M-period to take out the stops at the overnight low and prior day’s low. In the afterhours of N and O-period, the auction continued to fall as it closed ETH nearly 10-points lower than the RTH close.