05/02/2023 Synopsis
Job openings pull equities lower as investors await the Fed's interest rate decision tomorrow. Fed fund futures have a 90% probability for a 25 bps hike.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session. 1 S&P sector was positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Consumer discretionary XLY 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Arista Networks Inc ANET 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 🟢 3.97% (+0.8 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Balance. [Last 4-weeks: 4068.75 - 4198.25]
Daily: 🟡 Balance. [Last 3-days: 4105.50 - 4206.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s RTH range but below the value area. When the Asian session opened, sellers pushed the auction under the previous day’s low but trapped shorts provided support at 4176.25, a weak low. The auction rotated up near the prior day’s VPOC until finding supply at 4191.50. When London opened, sellers hit the bid to push $ES_F back under VWAP. New sessions lows were established going into RTH with wholesale inventory short. Overnight VPOC was 4180.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open gapped down but was inside the T+2 range. There was no bid in sight when the NYSE opened for trading. Sellers hit the bid and created lower highs in the first four TPO periods with $ES_F falling below the T+2 low. It took a loss of 70-points before the auction found support at 4105.50, several ticks above a swing low from 4/27. The single prints (trapped shorts/passive bids) from 4/27 were all filled on the move down. Supply ran out and shorts covered which led to higher lows from E through I-period. VWAP and VPOC were nearly identical as the auction traded in and around this level for the remainder of RTH. The single prints on the way down during B-period held as the buying from shorts wasn’t enough to consume the trapped offers above.