05/01/2023 Synopsis
Stocks tick lower as JPMorgan assumes control of First Republic Bank's assets. FOMC begins tomorrow with rate hike decision on Wednesday.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session. 5/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Industrials XLI 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Newell Brands Inc NWL 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 🟢 4.14% (+13.7 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢 Higher low. [Nearest Low: 4068.75]
Weekly: 🟡 Balance. [Last 4-weeks: 4068.75 - 4198.25]
Daily: 🟢 One time framing up. [Nearest Low: 4178.50]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was above the prior day’s value area but inside it’s HOD. The Asian and London sessions were completely rangebound inside a tight 15-point channel. There was a bid beneath 4181 and supply above 4196 for which there was no follow through from sellers or buyers to absorb either. Overnight VPOC was 4187 and inventory going into RTH was short below the prior day’s close.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. In A-period, we saw buyers lift the auction above the overnight high and the previous day’s high. Supply above the 2/15 HOD was also absorbed. There was a responsive seller at 4201.50 and once this supply was taken out, $ES_F continued to move slightly higher. Buyers took out the 2/14 HOD but encountered more supply at 4206.25. In G-period, supply held this level, 3 standard deviations above VWAP. From here, demand faded and wholesale brought the auction lower. This resulted in a 28-point drop to new session lows which exceeded the overnight low and two standard deviations below VWAP.