04/26/2023 Synopsis
Technology gained after strong Microsoft and Alphabet earnings while the rest of the market slid on the heels of First Republic Bank concerns
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session. 1/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Technology XLK 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Utilities XLU 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 First Republic Bank FRC 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year was slightly red.
2-year: 🔴 3.95% (+0.6 bps)
📈 Here is the broad market overview as of the current day’s close.
S&P 500 Breakdown
📈 Here is a breakdown of the S&P 500 by sector, style and top holdings.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟡 Balance / consolidation. [Last 4-months: 3788.50 - 4208.50]
Weekly: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 4135.25]
Daily: 🔴 One time framing down / lower highs. [Nearest high: 4116.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume Profile
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Most of the Asian session was flat but above yesterday’s O-period close. However, there was supply above 4116.25, near the top of the previous day’s single prints, which absorbed buyers. When the London session opened, sellers hit the bid and pushed the auction underneath VWAP and eventually the prior day’s low. Supply was absorbed at 4089.25 resulting in a bullish move back up towards VWAP. Sellers at VWAP drove $ES_F back down underneath 4100 right before RTH. Inventory during the overnight session was short. Overnight VPOC was 4112.75.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and below the T+2 low. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. Buyers in A-period failed get above VWAP. This resulted in a strong selloff in B-period, where $ES_F fell to two standard deviations below VWAP and erased the overnight and previous day’s low. At 4081.25, one tick beneath the naked VPOC from 3/30, trapped shorts were able to absorb supply and cover their positions. Their buying sparked a near 30-point move to the upside. This took $ES_F above the plus one standard deviation level, well short of the overnight high, before buyers were consumed by supply at 4109.75. In F-period, buyers were unable to lift the offer above this level and sellers steadily moved the auction lower over the next seven TPO-periods, surpassing the B-period low. In M-period, supply got absorbed at 4068.75. After the closing bell on the NYSE, $ES_F rose as wholesale marked up inventory to sell to buyers after strong earnings reported by Chipotle. O-period closed 10 handles higher than the M close.