04/06/2023 Synopsis
The S&P sees first losing week in four ahead of crucial jobs data and Good Friday holiday.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session. 8/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq-100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Communications XLC 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Catalent Inc CTLT 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 The Mosaic Company MOS 0.00%↑
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 🟢 3.83% (+4.3 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟡 Balance / consolidation. [Last 4-months: 3788.50 - 4208.50].
Weekly: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 3980.75]
Daily: 🔴 One time framing down / lower highs. [Nearest high: 4135.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a 5-day composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile
📈 Here is a chart of the past few sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day's close, and the overnight open was inside the prior day's value area, with inventory being short going into RTH. With demand absent during the Asian session, wholesale went on a search for buyers and eventually found the bid at 4105.25, leading to a climb higher. As London opened, inventory was corrected and investors continued to lift the market. However, at 4123.50, trapped long sell orders absorbed demand, causing $ES_F to rotate downwards. The entire overnight session remained within the prior day's RTH range, with VPOC being recorded at 4114.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open happened inside the previous day's value area and below T+2 low, with no gap in the RTH range. The $ES_F's downward momentum continued from the overnight session, falling beneath the previous day's and overnight low, unable to accept underneath 4100 for the second day. After hitting 4096.50, a reversal ensued as sellers failed to take out the bid. Buyers lifted the market towards VWAP, where it traded sideways for several TPO periods. In the E-period, buyers broke out of the range, lifting the market above the previous day and overnight high. Shorts got trapped in two sets of single prints as long investors pushed the auction to +2 standard deviation over VWAP. At 4135.25, supply absorbed demand and caused $ES_F to tick lower by up to 10 handles. Wholesale distributed inventory at the close, which was up from the prior day.