04/03/2023 Synopsis
Equities were mixed following manufacturing sector data and OPEC+ announcement of crude oil production cuts.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session. 7/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Marathon Oil Corporation MRO 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Tesla Inc TSLA 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index decreased.
$DXY: 🔴 102.04 (-0.53%)
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 3.97% (-5.7 bps)
10-year: 🔴 3.41% (-5.4 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟡 Balance / consolidation. [Last 4-months: 3788.50 - 4208.50].
Weekly: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 3980.75]
Daily: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 4122.75]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was completely short. There was little demand or outside selling of any kind as wholesale distributed over VWAP towards the end of Globex. Shorts were trapped underneath 4122.75, where 89 contracts were traded on the bid before responsive buying took place. Longs were trapped over 4137.50, where 155 contracts on the offer was able to get absorbed by passive sellers. Overnight VPOC was 4133.25.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and above the T+2 high. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. In the initial balance period, $ES_F rose above the overnight high and prior day’s high with a lack of supply. Buyers were absorbed by trapped longs at 4157.75, just shy of the VPOC from Feb 16th (4163.25). There were 91 contracts traded on the offer and none at the bid before $ES_F fell from the +2 standard deviation down between the -1 and -2 standard deviation. There wasn’t enough supply to take out the overnight low. At 4127.75, 37 contracts were traded on the bid and non on the offer, a sign of exhaustion. $ES_F traded in a range for several hours where it sliced through VWAP in both directions. In K-period, buyers pushed the auction above the range and continued to lift the bid above the +1 standard deviation. Buyers failed to make a new high by 1.5 points as supply absorbed demand. Wholesale was distributing to buyers at the end of the day where RTH was nearly inline with the ETH close.