03/31/2023 Synopsis
PCE eases to drive stocks higher into the month and quarter end.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in Friday’s session. 11/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Align Technologies ALGN 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Micron Technology MU 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index increased.
$DXY: 🟢 102.59 (+0.41%)
US Treasury yields retreated.
2-year: 🔴 4.03% (-9.5 bps)
10-year: 🔴 3.47% (-8.2 bps)
Events this week:
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟡 Balance / consolidation. [Last 4-months: 3788.50 - 4208.50].
Weekly: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 3980.75]
Daily: 🟢 One time framing up / higher lows. [Nearest low: 4078]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was long crossing and trading below VWAP in certain moments. Trapped shorts continued to hold the market up. The overnight session lacked the supply to trade below the prior day’s value area. There was a strong bid at 4078 that absorbed supply. Demand lifted price action above the prior day’s high. Overnight VPOC was 4087.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s price range and above the T+2 high. There was a gap up between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. The overnight gap held on by 3-ticks, indicating a continued lack of supply. Demand pushed price above the overnight high and $ES_F was trending up before consolidating around 4121.75. The auction traded sideways and once buyers took out the seller at this level, $ES_F continued to push up higher. The market topped out at 4142.50, which was reached after the NYSE close. $ES_F traded above VWAP for the full session and ended the day at +2 standard deviations above on the ETH and weekly anchored VWAP’s.