03/30/2023 Synopsis
An increase in jobless claims boost equities.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in yesterday’s session. 10/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Financials XLF 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 Zebra Technologies Corp ZBRA 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index decreased.
$DXY: 🔴 102.17 (-0.46%)
US Treasury yields mixed.
2-year: 🟢 4.12% (+2.1 bps)
10-year: 🔴 3.55% (-1.5 bps)
Here are some of yesterday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: 🟢🔴🟡 One time framing up (OTFU) / Higher lows.
Weekly: 🟢🔴🟡 One time framing down (OTFD) / Lower highs. [Nearest high: 4089.25]
Daily: 🟢 Broke out of balance. 3-day uptrend (OTFU) / higher lows.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (week-to-date)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile with daily ETH open anchored VWAP:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was above the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was long. There was a lack of supply again. Sellers failed to take out the bid at 4052.50, where 202 contracts were traded. What followed was a rotation up with the offer getting lifted throughout the night. Price rode the +1 standard deviation above VWAP for much of the session and made new highs, 4086.75, going into RTH. Overnight VPOC was 4080.25.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s price range and above the T+2 high. There was a gap up between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. The momentum from the overnight session was short lived when RTH opened. Buyers could only move the needle a few more ticks above the overnight high. There was trapped long supply above 4087.75, a few ticks shy of the March 7th high, that absorbed demand. There were only 51 contracts traded at this level before price reversed. From B-period to I-period, $ES_F was OTFD, going from the +1 standard deviation to the -2 standard deviation beneath VWAP. The overnight gap was filled to the tick. Price came down to 4061.25, where 22 contracts on the bid were traded, before reversing up. $ES_F got back over VWAP and finished near the +1 standard deviation.