03/29/2023 Synopsis
Rising pending hole sales helps lift stocks.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session. 11/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: 🟢 Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: 🔴 Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: 🟢 Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: 🔴 Health care XLV 0.00%↑
Top Stock: 🟢 SVB Financial Group SIVB 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: 🔴 Bath & Body Works Inc. BBWI 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index increased.
$DXY: 🟢 102.64 (+0.21%)
US Treasury yields were mixed.
2-year: 🟢 4.10% (+1.4 bps)
10-year: 🔴 3.56% (-0.3 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance / consolidation. [Last 3-months: 3814.5 - 4208.5].
Weekly: Balance. [Last 5-weeks: 3839.25 - 4089.25]
Daily: Balance. [Last 7-days: 3937 - 4073.75]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was above the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was long with trapped shorts holding the market up. There was no supply overnight as traders easily lifted the offer. Price was above VWAP for the whole session allowing wholesale to liquidate at higher prices. $ES_F rose above the T+2 high and the prior day’s high. Overnight VPOC was 4036.25 and the auction hit new session highs right before the RTH open.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s price range and above the T+2 high. There was a gap up between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. There was an inventory correction initially when the NYSE opened up. This lasted for about 3-TPO periods before a weak low was created at 4032. From there, $ES_F rotated back up over VWAP. The market was rangebound between the 1st standard deviation and VWAP for several hours. As sellers failed to push $ES_F underneath VWAP, the auction broke out of its range and climbed to the 2nd standard deviation. Supply was finally hit at 4061.25. The RTH session ended nearly inline with the ETH close.