03/08/2023 Synopsis
The markets weigh in on further rate hikes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell met testified in front of the House Committee on Financial Services.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 rebounded in today’s session. 7/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: Real estate XLRE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Top Stock: Paccar Inc PCAR 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index increased.
$DXY: 🟢105.69 (+0.07%)
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 🟢 5.07% (+5.7 bps)
10-year: 🟢 3.99% (+2.3 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance / consolidation. [Last 3-months: 3814.5 - 4208.5]
Weekly: OTFD ended. Balance [3925 - 4089.25]
Daily: OTFD in a larger balance zone. [3925 - 4082.50].
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was rangebound between 3982.25 and 4000.75. Trapped short and long positions plus a lack of conviction from new investors kept the overnight session in a tight range. Wholesale moved inventory above VWAP as they could when demand came in and took the auction lower when demand faded. Overnight VPOC was 3990, right where the prior day’s RTH VWAP was.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was inside the prior day’s value area and below the T+2 low. There was no gap between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. From the opening hour on, it was a rotational, balanced session. Shorts trapped back on March 2nd held the bid that kept the auction from going below 3971.50. Longs trapped during yesterday’s selloff held the supply that kept price from rising above 4003.25. As a result, price action rotated above, below and back above VWAP throughout the day. As buyers came in, market makers sold above VWAP and the auction fell beneath when the buying ended. The ETH close was a few points above the NYSE close.