03/06/2023 Synopsis
Equities were mixed as factory orders fall but slightly less than anticipated.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session. 6/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ & Technology XLK 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: Materials XLB 0.00%↑
Top Stock: Lumen Technologies LUMN 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: DexCom DXCM 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index decreased.
$DXY: 🔴 104.29 (-0.22%)
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 🟢 4.88% (+2.9 bps)
10-year: 🟢 3.96% (+0.8 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance / consolidation. [Last 3-months: 3814.5 - 4208.5]
Weekly: OTFD ended. Balance [3925 - 4089.25]
Daily: OTFU / Higher lows [Nearest low: 4041.75]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was rangebound in a 23-point range. Wholesale distributed above VWAP and then backfilled underneath when demand faded. There was a lack of follow through in either direction to take out trapped long supply above 4064 and trapped short bids below 4041.75. Overnight VPOC was 4049.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s price range and above the T+2 high. There was a gap up between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. There was a lack of supply at the US open and the overnight gap couldn’t fill. $ES_F rotated up on the back of a strong bid to rise above the overnight high. At 4082.50, trapped long supply absorbed demand. $ES_F fell underneath VWAP and back into the overnight range. The overnight gap was filled and supply shut off at 4048. Short covering stabilized the auction into the session close which was 5-ticks above settlement.