03/03/2023 Synopsis
Stocks rose and rates fell on stronger than expected service sector data.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in Friday’s session. 11/11 sectors were positive.
Outperforming Index: Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: Dow Jones DIA 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: Communications XLC 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: Consumer Staples XLP 0.00%↑
Top Stock: The Cooper Companies COO 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: Hormel Foods Corporation HRL 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index decreased.
$DXY: 🔴 104.53 (-0.42%)
Yields on US T-bills advanced while rates on notes and bonds retreated.
2-year: 🔴 4.86% (-3.2 bps)
10-year: 🔴 3.96% (-10.6 bps)
Events this week:
Here are some of Friday’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance / consolidation. [Last 3-months: 3814.5 - 4208.5]
Weekly: OTFD / lower highs in each of the past 4-weeks. [Nearest high: 4053]
Daily: Broke out of near-term balance zone [3925 - 4034.25]. Need confirmation to see if its a new uptrend. $ES_F remains in larger balance zone from November and December [3912.50 - 4110].
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was long at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was above the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was long. Shorts tried to sell off initially but trapped shorts below 3974 provided support and absorbed the weak supply. The auction was rangebound for most of the Japan session. Once London opened, buyers came in and supply shut off. $ES_F steadily rose at this point to remain above VWAP and eclipse the prior day’s high. $ES_F made new session highs going into RTH. Overnight VPOC was 3980.75.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was above the prior day’s price range and above the T+2 high. There was a gap up between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. There was a lack of supply in RTH as the overnight gap couldn’t get filled. In the opening hour, sellers were absorbed at 3998 by the bid from trapped shorts. $ES_F pushed up and beyond the overnight high on the strength of the trapped short position. Wholesale distributed the inventory they acquired around 3967 the past few days above the monthly, weekly and current session VWAP. Throughout the day, $ES_F continued to climb and took out supply at the 4024.75 and 4034.25 recent swing highs. $ES_F trended up between the +1 and +2 standard deviation throughout the afternoon. In the hour after the NYSE close, $ES_F kept rising and made a weak high at 4053. It ended ETH 2-ticks below the session high.