03/02/2023 Synopsis
Equities get a lift as Atlanta Fed President hints at smaller rate hikes.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was up in today’s session.
Outperforming Index: Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: Russell 2000 IWM 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: Utilities XLU 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: Financials XLF 0.00%↑
Top Stock: Salesforce CRM 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index increased.
$DXY: 104.97 (+0.57%)
US Treasury yields advanced for notes and bonds.
2-year: 4.88% (+0.6 bps)
10-year: 4.06% (+7 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance. [3814.5 - 4208.5]
Weekly: OTFD / lower highs. [Nearest high: 4089.25]
Daily: Balance. [3925 - 4034.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES VWAP & Market/Volume Profile Levels
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area. Inventory during the overnight session was short. Early on in the Asian open, buyers hit trapped long supply at 3965.50. So inventory went beneath VWAP as they liquidated. At 3932, there was a bid that momentarily kept things afloat. Once London opened, that bid was absorbed and $ES_F went lower to nearly -2 standard deviations below VWAP. At 3925, there was another bid that held. $ES_F rallied above VWAP momentarily before selling off back underneath it. Overnight VPOC was 3935.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was below the prior day’s price range and below the T+2 low. There was a gap down between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. Supply tried to sell further during the opening 30-mins, but trapped shorts covered their bids at 3931. They ultimately absorbed sellers and $ES_F rotated upwards from there. The overnight gap was filled and the auction consolidated above VWAP for the RTH session. During I-period, $ES_F broke out from the balance area and climbed above the overnight high. Longs continued to lift the offer as $ES_F climbed above the prior day’s high. At 3995.25, trapped long supply absorbed demand and $ES_F backfilled down 10 to 15-handles into the close of ETH.