03/01/2023 Synopsis
Equities decline due to stronger-than-expected manufacturing data.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 was down in today’s session.
Outperforming Index: Russell IWM 0.00%↑
Underperforming Index: Nasdaq QQQ 0.00%↑
Strongest Sector: Energy XLE 0.00%↑
Weakest Sector: Utilities XLU 0.00%↑
Top Stock: First Solar FSLR 0.00%↑
Poorest Stock: Lowe’s Companies LOW 0.00%↑
The US Dollar index increased.
$DXY: 104.41 (-0.41%)
US Treasury yields advanced.
2-year: 4.87% (+5.8 bps)
10-year: 3.99% (+7 bps)
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
Monthly: Balance [3814.5 - 4208.5]
Weekly: One time framing down (OTFD). [Nearest high: 4089.25]
Daily: OTFD / lower highs. [Nearest high: 3991] Breached balance area low [3943 - 4034.25]
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: n/a
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3943 to 3945.75; 3975.25 to 3976.50
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was short at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was below the prior day’s value area but inside the LOD. Inventory was short initially during the Asian open as there was no demand. At 3956, trapped short bids kept the auction afloat. $ES_F rotated up from this point to slice through VWAP and get back into the prior day’s value area. At 3991, long inventory near the weekly VWAP provided resistance. About an hour before the NY open, supply sold off and $ES_F fell from +1 standard deviation to -1 standard deviations. Overnight VWAP was 3983, nearly inline with the prior day’s VPOC.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
The RTH open was below the prior day’s price range and below the T+2 low. There was a gap down between the previous day’s RTH range and the RTH open. The overnight gap was closed in the first half hour as investors bid up the auction. $ES_F nearly got into the prior day’s value area but trapped long supply at 3976.50 absorbed demand. Price fell and dipped beneath the overnight low. Price action whipsawed after the opening hour before market makers took the auction lower in search of buyers. At 3943, upside down shorts covered their positions and the market rallied 30-handles. $ES_F rotated back and forth in a 30-point range for the remainder of the session, never making a new RTH high or low. The ETH session closed under the prior day’s low.