02/23/2023 Synopsis
Equities endured early selling but finished higher. Bonds also rose as rates ticked lower.
Market Overview
Every major equity index wiped away early morning losses to finish with slight gains. The Nasdaq and Russell were each up about 0.70%. Seven S&P sectors were positive. Technology was today’s top performing sector and utilities did the worst.
The longer end of the US Treasury yield curve fell while the short end rose. The 2-year note gained 0.5 bps to 4.7%. The 10-year lost 3.6 bps to fall to 3.88%. Below is a chart with a comparison of the yield on several Treasuries of varying duration.
The US Dollar index $DXY was up 0.09% to finish at 104.58.
Here are some of today’s closing prices.
E-mini S&P 500 Top-Down Analysis
📈 Below are the monthly, weekly, daily and 4-hour charts for $ES_F.
M/M: January was an inside month as all price action was contained inside December’s high and low. The past 3-months have been in balance.
W/W: $ES_F failed to trade above the prior week’s high for the second week in a row.
D/D: $ES_F ended the string of sessions OTFD with an outside day. The price action exceeded the prior day’s high and low.
E-mini S&P 500 Metrics
Recent Performance & Technicals
E-mini S&P 500 Volume/Market Profile
ES Composite Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a composite ETH Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Volume Profile (5 days)
📈 Here is a chart of the past five sessions with a daily ETH/RTH split Volume Profile:
ES ETH/RTH Split Market/Volume Profile (today)
📈 Here’s a TPO chart of today’s session with ETH/RTH split Market/Volume Profile:
ES Market/Volume Profile Levels
RTH Weak High/Low: 4034.25 (high)
RTH Single Prints: n/a
RTH Excess: 3974.25 to 3976
RTH Gap: n/a
Session Recap
Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
Overnight Session:
Wholesale was flat at the prior day’s close. The overnight open was inside the prior day’s value area and above the close and ETH VWAP. Shorts tried to sell the market down but couldn’t lower the bid below 4005. Trapped shorts bid the auction up and $ES_F rotated to the upside. $ES_F rose above the prior day’s value area and weekly VWAP. There was supply at 4024.50 as buyers couldn’t bring the offer above this level. Overnight VPOC was 4016.
Regular Trading Hours (RTH) Session:
RTH gapped up and was above the prior day’s high but inside the T+2 range. The overnight high was exceeded in an opening hour that featured price action that whipsawed back and forth in a 17-point range. There was a weak high at 4034.25 as buyers in A and B-period failed to lift the offer above this level. After the opening hour, there was heavy supply that took out the bids at 4020, a few points above the IB low. From there, supply continued to hit the market in search of a bid. $ES_F fell nearly 50-handles and took out the weekly and current session’s VWAP, as well as prior day’s low. Supply finally ran out at 3974.25. Short covering then led to a 50-point rally to the upside to get above VWAP again and turn $ES_F green for the day.